ROARABLE // PRO
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US TAPE
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TLN // Talen Energy Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001622536 ↗
Utilities • Electric Utilities: Central
$343.12 ▼ -5.73 (-1.64%)
MKT CAP: $16.71B • VOL: 865.4K
TLN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 41/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
41 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +200% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -7.2% • Z 1.18
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 41% • VS 200D -0.1% • RSI 53.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +3.6% • P/E 28x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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TLN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.79%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $347.8H $348.9L $343.1C $343.1VOL 653.9K
RES: $396.9SUP: $244.6SMA50: $326.1SMA200: $349.1
$461.7$412.4$363.1$313.8$264.5RES $396.9SUP $244.6$343.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
TLN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 68/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -1.0% return on invested capital within Utilities (Electric Utilities: Central), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into -3.6% operating margin and -1.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -1.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +60.0% paired with 3.63% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +60.0% // FCF YLD: 3.63%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.18 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.18 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (28.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $343.12 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Electric Utilities: Central require continuous execution to defend -8.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -8.7% // D/E: 6.20x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 28.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.74).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 28.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 3.63%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN -3.6%
NET MARGIN -8.7%
ROIC % -1.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +60.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-4.57
DEBT / EQUITY 6.20x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.40%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 53.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.74
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TLNPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $313.97
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>