Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$343.12 -1.64% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $341.46

Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $16.71B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Talen Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: TLN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $343.12 (-1.64% 1D, market cap $16.71B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, TLN ranks #95 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TLN compare to EMA and BEP in the Utilities sector?
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Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TLN carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -1.0%. By comparison, EMA (Emera Incorporated) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $15.17B) and BEP (Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $19.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NRG leads on earnings multiple (23.7x) while NRG leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLN?
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Per TLN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001622536), Talen Energy Corporation generated $2.52B in revenue (+60.0% YoY), -$219.0M in net income, and $606.0M in free cash flow against $10.90B in total assets and $6.78B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $341.44 (-0.49%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 24.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510041
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk E
Cash (10)Whales (11)SEC (6)Macro (3)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.7% Base Target
$472 Bull$317 Base$247 Bear
📬 FREE TLN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TLN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TLN SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+11/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (53.3) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$382.14-8.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
46
Grade D$349.43-1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
44
Grade D$345.73-0.8% Next Q
Current
41
Grade D-$343.12-7.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D- (41)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TLN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TLN currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($326.09) and Max Pain ($360.28) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $472.33.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TLN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TLN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
53.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
1.18>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
6 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE37% OF RANGE
L: $280$343.12H: $450
1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: DRQD 10 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: ERQD 9 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on TLN

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BEARISH (50)

-1.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 3.63% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (30)

Altman-Z 1.18 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (42)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 3/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TLN
  • ✓Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TLN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TLN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TLN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.79%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $347.8H $348.9L $343.1C $343.1VOL 653.9K
RES: $396.9SUP: $244.6SMA50: $326.1SMA200: $349.1
$461.7$412.4$363.1$313.8$264.5RES $396.9SUP $244.6$343.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TLN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
21.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +60.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TLN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TLN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TLN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TLN)

Utilities Rank #95 of 117 ⚔️ EMA vs TLN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (TLN vs. EMA, BEP, NRG, KEP)

Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)

Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) ranks #95 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #37 by equity capitalization ($16.71B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NRG leads on earnings valuation at 23.7x trailing P/E, while NRG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.9% ROIC and — gross margin. EMA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with TLN at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TLN ACTIVE
Talen Energy Corporation
D- 41/100 — — -1.0% -1.64% $16.71B Benchmark Subject
EMA
Emera Incorporated
C 62/100 32.8x — 9.9% -0.18% $15.17B /ema-vs-tln →
BEP
Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.
D+ 57/100 32.8x — 9.9% -1.34% $19.75B /bep-vs-tln →
NRG
NRG Energy Inc.
D 48/100 23.7x — 10.9% -1.52% $20.50B /nrg-vs-tln →
KEP
Korea Electric Power Corporation
D 46/100 — — — -0.58% $13.35B /kep-vs-tln →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001622536

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.52B (+60.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.57B ) , GAAP net income of -$219.0M, operating cash flow of $704.0M, and free cash flow of $606.0M (+254.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TLN closed FY2025 with $10.90B in total assets against $6.78B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.18, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.52B -$219.0M $704.0M $606.0M $10.90B $6.78B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.57B $998.0M $256.0M $171.0M $6.11B $2.99B

3. TLN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TLN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Talen Energy Corporation (NASDAQ: TLN) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $343.12 (-1.64% 1D, market cap $16.71B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 6/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, TLN ranks #95 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TLN compare to EMA and BEP in the Utilities sector?

Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), TLN carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -1.0%. By comparison, EMA (Emera Incorporated) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $15.17B) and BEP (Brookfield Renewable Partners L.P.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $19.75B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NRG leads on earnings multiple (23.7x) while NRG leads on capital efficiency (10.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLN?

Per TLN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001622536), Talen Energy Corporation generated $2.52B in revenue (+60.0% YoY), -$219.0M in net income, and $606.0M in free cash flow against $10.90B in total assets and $6.78B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TLN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TLN last traded at $343.12 (-1.64% on volume of 865,395 shares), positioning the stock +5.22% above its 50-day simple moving average ($326.09) and -1.72% below its 200-day simple moving average ($349.14). Across its 52-week range of $279.77 to $449.84, TLN sits at the 37.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.5% ($310.52 to $375.72).

TLN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell TLN stock right now?

Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 41/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is TLN's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TLN's 12-month base price target is $316.87 (range $247.16 to $472.33), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 41/100 (D-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TLN — Talen Energy Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:14:18Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TLN scores 41 out of 100 with a letter grade of D- and a verdict of "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The pillar breakdown is as follows. The fundamental cash engine scores 10 of 20, reflecting ROIC of -1% and an FCF yield of 3.63%. Whale 13F flow scores 11 of 20 on institutional accumulation and options positioning. Insider conviction scores 11 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. Macro regime fit scores 3 of 20, reflecting a beta of 0.74 and sector sensitivity. Forensic balance sheet scores 6 of 20, reflecting an Altman Z of 1.18, a Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 6.2.

For a prospective investor, the weakest pillar is macro regime fit, and the balance sheet pillar also signals elevated risk. The cash engine and flow pillars sit at intermediate levels, indicating that the upside case depends on improving returns on capital and sustained institutional and insider interest. The valuation tradeoff is visible in the market data: a forward P/E of 28 is shown alongside negative trailing EPS of -4.57, so the stock's price relies on earnings expectations that the trailing figures do not yet support. The dividend yield of 3.4% is a potential support, but the rating's balance-sheet and cash-flow pillars indicate that its sustainability warrants scrutiny.

Business

Talen Energy Corporation is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Utilities sector, operating in the Electric Utilities: Central industry. Per the profile, the company has a market capitalization of $16.7B. The source data does not describe its specific products, customers, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news wire, six headlines relate to TLN. A Yahoo Finance report describes the stock as moving 12.4% higher. A TradingKey report describes a close up 12.43% on Oct 6. A Seeking Alpha item, marked as a catalyst, discusses cornerstone and buyback considerations supporting the buy case. Additional items from CNN, Yahoo Finance, and Simply Wall St are generic market-coverage reports with no specific fundamental detail in the summaries. The Butterfly supply-chain graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals. Risk watch items are limited to the balance-sheet and cash-flow metrics noted in the rating, and the news summaries do not specify the drivers of the reported price moves.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. The sector is Utilities and the industry is Electric Utilities: Central. Because no upstream or downstream dependencies are provided, upstream/downstream dependency analysis and sector-correlation detail are not available in source data. A prospective investor should note that the leverage increase shown in the financials, with debt rising from $2987.0M to $6782.0M, is the most visible potential second-order channel, since higher debt service would sit alongside negative operating income of $-90.0M in FY 2025.

Open Questions

  • What is the company's operating model, customer base, and revenue composition, given that the source provides only sector and industry classification?
  • What drove the increase in debt from $2987.0M to $6782.0M, and what is the schedule of that debt?
  • What explains the swing in net income from $998.0M in FY 2024 to $-219.0M in FY 2025?
  • What is the basis for the 12.4% price move and the Seeking Alpha reference to buybacks and cornerstone positioning?
  • Why is trailing P/E and EV/EBITDA unavailable while a forward P/E of 28 is provided?

TLN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TLN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TLN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $343.12?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TLN 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TLN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $306.99 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TLN (D- • RQD 41/100) a Buy at $348.85?

Welcome to the TLN (Talen Energy Corporation) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 41/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Electric Utilities: Central. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

BE BearTrap_Alert Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $265.13 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $348.85

Pump the brakes on TLN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TLN, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Talen Energy Corporation expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

TA TapeReader_Pro Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $443.04 (+27.0%)
Spot @ $348.85

TLN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TLN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Electric Utilities: Central and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $348.85 (52-wk range $279.77 - $449.84), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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