SERIES: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (3.26)
VIXCLS (17.2)
INDPRO (103.9506)
UMCSENT (48.1)
CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
ICSA (194000)
PAYEMS (159044)
UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
NETLIQ (5745.73)
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WALCL (6745635)
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DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
FRED // VIXCLS
CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)
CREDIT Daily
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-10-29 • UNIT: Index
LATEST OBSERVATION
17.2 Index
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
16.91 (+ 0.29)
YOY CHANGE
+ 1.65 Index
VIXCLS // CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) (Index)1Y: +0.78 (+4.8%)
2026-10-29OBSERVATION: 17.20 (Index)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. VIXCLS SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLC | Communication Services | -0.07 r | | 0% | [-0.25% per +5 VIX pts] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y VIXCLS cycle (261W) |
| XLE | Energy | -0.07 r | | 1% | [-0.38% per +5 VIX pts] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y VIXCLS cycle (261W) |
| XLV | Health Care | -0.08 r | | 1% | [-0.24% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLK | Technology | -0.08 r | | 1% | [-0.39% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLI | Industrials | -0.08 r | | 1% | [-0.27% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | -0.09 r | | 1% | [-0.21% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLB | Materials | -0.11 r | | 1% | [-0.38% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -0.13 r | | 2% | [-0.55% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLF | Financials | -0.13 r | | 2% | [-0.46% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLU | Utilities | -0.14 r | | 2% | [-0.45% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -0.15 r | | 2% | [-0.54% per +5 VIX pts] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during VIXCLS upswings |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF NEUTRAL
VIX EDGES UP TO 17.2 INDEX: VOLATILITY RISK PREMIUM NORMALIZING WITHIN MID-RANGE AS SYSTEMIC STRESS REMAINS CONTAINED
The VIX ticked up +0.290 Index sequentially to 17.2 Index (+1.65 YoY), remaining contained within its 52-observation corridor of 14.21 to 19.99 Index. While all 11 GICS sectors exhibit negative Pearson correlations to implied volatility expansions, the sub-20 print signals an orderly equity risk premium environment rather than an acute liquidity crunch or balance sheet deleveraging. Elevated chop continues to disproportionately penalize high-multiple cyclical and debt-dependent duration assets, while mega-cap cash generators and commodity hedges preserve relative capital efficiency.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLC // Communication Services
Demonstrates the highest relative resilience across the equity complex with a Pearson r of -0.07 and beta sensitivity of -0.25% per +5 VIX pts, supported by dominant mega-cap balance sheet liquidity and resilient digital advertising margins that insulate cash flows from vol spikes.
XLE // Energy
Displays minimal empirical sensitivity to vol expansions (Pearson r of -0.07, R²=0.01), as underlying commodity fundamentals, high free cash flow conversion, and aggressive capital return programs provide an unhedged operational offset to broad equity volatility.
XLV // Health Care
Anchored by a resilient Pearson r of -0.08 and the lowest beta sensitivity in the complex at -0.24% per +5 VIX pts, benefiting from inelastic pricing power, defensive pharmaceutical revenue visibility, and robust insulation against broader equity discount-rate turbulence.
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLRE // Real Estate
Faces the steepest drag across the matrix with Pearson r of -0.15 and a heavy beta sensitivity of -0.54% per +5 VIX pts, where implied volatility expansions trigger wider commercial credit spreads and elevated debt refinancing costs across leveraged REIT structures.
XLU // Utilities
Sits among the most vulnerable to volatility creep with Pearson r of -0.14 and -0.45% sensitivity per +5 VIX pts, as rising equity risk premia compress dividend-yield spreads relative to cash rates while heavy capex financing requirements face widening corporate bond spreads.
XLY // Consumer Discretionary
Directly burdened by Pearson r of -0.13 and the highest downside beta sensitivity across all sectors at -0.55% per +5 VIX pts, reflecting immediate multiple compression on non-essential consumption exposure and consumer balance sheet sensitivity amid elevated market uncertainty.
HISTORICAL ANALOG // Mid-2015 Pre-Liftoff Volatility Chop (VIX 16-19 Range), where intermittent volatility spikes accompanied by tightening liquidity conditions compressed debt-sensitive real estate (XLRE) and high-beta discretionary multiples while quality balance sheets and low-beta defensives outperformed.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO VIXCLS STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA Technology | $213.66 | -0.80% | + 0.00 |
| AAPL Technology | $348.91 | +1.48% | + 0.00 |
| MSFT Technology | $530.14 | -0.16% | + 0.00 |
| GOOGL Communication Services | $283.82 | -12.64% | + 0.00 |
| GOOG Communication Services | $282.32 | -12.29% | + 0.00 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $243.79 | -4.25% | + 0.00 |
| TSM Technology | $431.81 | -1.75% | + 0.00 |
| SPCX Technology | $143.89 | -0.92% | + 0.00 |
| AVGO Technology | $345.00 | -1.94% | + 0.00 |
| META Communication Services | $624.52 | +1.96% | + 0.00 |