ECST INFL <GO> // Inflation, CPI, PCE & Commodity Cost Matrix Headline CPI, Core CPI, PCE Price Index, WTI Crude & 30-Year Mortgage Transmission

FRED ID	MACRO INDICATOR	CATEGORY	LATEST	PRIOR	YOY / Δ	OBS DATE
CPIAUCSL	Consumer Price Index: Headline All Items (CPI-U)	INFLATION	336.298 Index	334.131	+ 2.17 (+3.72 YoY)	2026-09-01
CPILFESL	Core Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy	INFLATION	338.896 Index	337.765	+ 1.13 (+2.57 YoY)	2026-09-01
DCOILWTICO	WTI Crude Oil Spot Price (Cushing, OK)	INFLATION	103.37 $/bbl	105.25	-1.88 (+66.38 YoY)	2026-10-27
MORTGAGE30US	30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average	INFLATION	7.24 %	7.32	-0.08 (+1.07 YoY)	2026-10-29
PCEPI	Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index	INFLATION	132.257 Index	131.611	+ 0.65 (+3.65 YoY)	2026-09-01

FRED // CPIAUCSL

Consumer Price Index: Headline All Items (CPI-U)

INFLATION Monthly

OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-09-01 • UNIT: Index

LATEST OBSERVATION

336.298 Index

PRIOR / PERIOD Δ

334.131 (+ 2.17)

YOY CHANGE

+ 3.72 Index

CPIAUCSL // Consumer Price Index: Headline All Items (CPI-U) (Index)1Y: +12.05 (+3.7%)

2026-09-01OBSERVATION: 336.30 (Index)

11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. CPIAUCSL SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)

ETF	GICS SECTOR	PEARSON r	R²	BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION
XLE	Energy	+0.32 r	10%	[+9.53% per +1% delta] Primary cyclical tailwind when CPIAUCSL expands (r=0.32)
XLB	Materials	-0.12 r	1%	[-2.67% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPIAUCSL upswings
XLU	Utilities	-0.13 r	2%	[-2.58% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPIAUCSL upswings
XLC	Communication Services	-0.23 r	5%	[-5.06% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPIAUCSL upswings
XLI	Industrials	-0.23 r	6%	[-4.9% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPIAUCSL upswings
XLRE	Real Estate	-0.25 r	6%	[-5.55% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPIAUCSL upswings
XLP	Consumer Staples	-0.25 r	6%	[-4.01% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPIAUCSL upswings
XLF	Financials	-0.25 r	6%	[-5.36% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPIAUCSL upswings
XLK	Technology	-0.27 r	7%	[-7.85% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPIAUCSL upswings
XLV	Health Care	-0.28 r	8%	[-4.75% per +1% delta] Acute duration/spread compression headwind as CPIAUCSL rises (r=-0.28)
XLY	Consumer Discretionary	-0.29 r	9%	[-7.74% per +1% delta] Acute duration/spread compression headwind as CPIAUCSL rises (r=-0.29)

AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF RESTRICTIVE

HEADLINE CPI PRINTS 336.298 INDEX (+2.167 M/M): PERSISTENT PRICE PRESSURES ENFORCE TIGHT POLICY BIAS

The headline CPI print hitting 336.298 Index represents a fresh 52-observation high and an acceleration of +2.167 index points sequentially, solidifying restrictive Fed reaction function expectations. Rising price indices anchor terminal rate projections higher and widen the real-rate discount applied to equity terminal cash flows. The transmission mechanism works through acute multiple compression across secular-duration sectors and margin compression in consumer-facing industries facing stubborn upstream input costs.

▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS

XLE // Energy

Holding the sole positive Pearson correlation in the complex at r = +0.32 with a +9.53% beta sensitivity per 1% CPIAUCSL delta, upstream energy producers act as the primary structural inflation hedge through immediate commodity passthrough and cash flow accretion.

XLB // Materials

Relative outperformer on the correlation curve with a mild drag of r = -0.12 and beta sensitivity of -2.67%, benefiting from raw commodity pricing power and replacement-cost asset revaluation compared to long-duration cyclicals.

XLU // Utilities

Screens with the lowest negative beta sensitivity in the rate-sensitive bucket at -2.58% and r = -0.13, providing structural capital protection via regulated rate-base adjustments and indexed revenue mechanisms.

▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS

XLY // Consumer Discretionary

Screens as the primary institutional underweight with the steepest negative Pearson correlation at r = -0.29 and a -7.74% beta sensitivity, driven by discretionary wallet-share erosion and tightening consumer credit conditions.

XLV // Health Care

Exhibits severe duration and spread compression with r = -0.28 and a -4.75% beta sensitivity, pressured by elevated clinical labor costs and delayed commercial pricing realization.

XLK // Technology

Highly vulnerable to discount-rate repricing with r = -0.27 and the largest downside beta sensitivity in the complex at -7.85%, triggering multi-turn valuation de-ratings on backloaded cash flows as yields stay higher.

HISTORICAL ANALOG // 2022 Real-Yield Duration Shock: Mid-2022 sequential headline inflation spikes forced aggressive front-loaded Fed tightening, driving severe multiple derating across high-multiple growth (XLK, XLY) while Energy (XLE) generated significant positive alpha via raw commodity index outperformance.

EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO CPIAUCSL STOCK BETA

TICKER	LAST	% CHG	CORR (r)
NVDA Technology	$213.66	-0.80%	+ 0.00
AAPL Technology	$348.91	+1.48%	+ 0.00
MSFT Technology	$530.14	-0.16%	+ 0.00
GOOGL Communication Services	$283.82	-12.64%	+ 0.00
GOOG Communication Services	$282.32	-12.29%	+ 0.00
AMZN Consumer Discretionary	$243.79	-4.25%	+ 0.00
TSM Technology	$431.81	-1.75%	+ 0.00
SPCX Technology	$143.89	-0.92%	+ 0.00
AVGO Technology	$345.00	-1.94%	+ 0.00
META Communication Services	$624.52	+1.96%	+ 0.00