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CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
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UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
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WALCL (6745635)
WTREGEN (999727)
DFII10 (2.63)
DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
GC / YCRV <GO> // US Treasury Yield Curve & Real Rates Matrix Fed Funds, SOFR, 2Y/10Y Nominal Yields, 10Y-2Y Curve Inversion & 10Y TIPS Real Yields
| FRED ID | MACRO INDICATOR | CATEGORY | LATEST | PRIOR | YOY / Δ | 5Y SPARK | OBS DATE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DFII10 | 10-Year TIPS Constant Maturity Real Yield | YIELDS | 2.63 % | 2.67 | -0.04 (+0.85 YoY) | 2026-10-29 | |
| DGS10 | 10-Year US Treasury Constant Maturity Yield | YIELDS | 4.98 % | 5.05 | -0.07 (+0.90 YoY) | 2026-10-29 | |
| DGS2 | 2-Year US Treasury Constant Maturity Yield | YIELDS | 4.61 % | 4.67 | -0.06 (+1.02 YoY) | 2026-10-29 | |
| FEDFUNDS | Effective Federal Funds Policy Rate | YIELDS | 3.75 % | 3.63 | + 0.12 (-0.47 YoY) | 2026-09-01 | |
| SOFR | Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) | YIELDS | 3.94 % | 3.94 | + 0.00 (-0.33 YoY) | 2026-10-29 | |
| T10Y2Y | 10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield Spread | YIELDS | 0.38 % | 0.37 | + 0.01 (-0.12 YoY) | 2026-10-30 |
FRED // T10Y2Y
10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield Spread
YIELDS Daily
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-10-30 • UNIT: %
LATEST OBSERVATION
0.38 %
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
0.37 (+ 0.01)
YOY CHANGE
-0.12 %
T10Y2Y // 10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield Spread (%)1Y: -0.11 (-22.4%)
2026-10-30OBSERVATION: 0.38% (%)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. T10Y2Y SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLU | Utilities | +0.11 r | | 1% | [+0.72% per +25 bps] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising T10Y2Y |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | +0.10 r | | 1% | [+0.51% per +25 bps] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising T10Y2Y |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | +0.07 r | | 1% | [+0.62% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLC | Communication Services | +0.05 r | | 0% | [+0.38% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLRE | Real Estate | +0.03 r | | 0% | [+0.21% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLI | Industrials | +0.02 r | | 0% | [+0.14% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLF | Financials | +0.01 r | | 0% | [+0.09% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLV | Health Care | +0.00 r | | 0% | [+0.02% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLE | Energy | -0.01 r | | 0% | [-0.08% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLK | Technology | -0.02 r | | 0% | [-0.19% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLB | Materials | -0.02 r | | 0% | [-0.15% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF NEUTRAL
US TREASURY CURVE UN-INVERSION FLATTENS AT +0.38%: TERM PREMIUM NORMALIZATION SIGNALS POST-STRESS MID-CYCLE TRANSITION
The T10Y2Y spread ticked up sequentially by +0.010% to print at 0.38% (down -0.12% YoY), remaining within its trailing 52-observation corridor of 0.20% to 0.52%. With the curve maintaining a mild positive slope, discount-rate volatility is transitioning from front-end policy uncertainty toward long-end duration adjustments, stabilizing bank net interest margin dynamics while containing systemic credit-spread blowouts. Multiples across high-duration growth face minor valuation compression, while defensive yield proxies show relative stability as term premia re-anchor.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLU // Utilities
Displays the highest positive relationship across the matrix (Pearson r = +0.11, beta sensitivity of +0.72% per +25 bps steepening), benefiting as steepening reflects orderly rate-cut cycles that lower debt refinancing costs on highly leveraged balance sheets.
XLP // Consumer Staples
Carries a Pearson r of +0.10 with a +0.51% sensitivity per +25 bps move; steady terminal rates and an un-inverted 2Y10Y spread support inelastic cash flows and dividend appeal relative to shifting front-end cash yields.
XLY // Consumer Discretionary
Exhibits a Pearson r of +0.07 and beta sensitivity of +0.62% per +25 bps, supported by the curve steepening away from recessionary inversion levels and alleviating tighter consumer credit and financing constraints.
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLK // Technology
Presents an inverse sensitivity with Pearson r = -0.02 and beta sensitivity of -0.19% per +25 bps; rising long-end yields relative to short-term paper trigger DCF multiple contraction across long-duration software and semiconductor equities.
XLB // Materials
Displays a negative correlation (Pearson r = -0.02, beta sensitivity of -0.15% per +25 bps), facing headwinds from term premium elevation and muted global industrial demand despite curve steepening.
XLE // Energy
Registers a slightly negative Pearson r of -0.01 with a -0.08% beta response per +25 bps, as mild disinflationary bull/bear steepening dynamics fail to inject upward momentum into crude demand and upstream capex multiples.
HISTORICAL ANALOG // 2024 Post-Inversion Re-Steepening Regime: Following protracted 2022-2023 inversion, the 2Y10Y spread rebuilt positive territory around +30 to +50 bps via mixed front-end policy easing and back-end term-premium re-pricing. During this transition, cyclicals and mega-cap tech experienced factor dispersion and valuation consolidation, while dividend-yielding defensive factors and rate-sensitive bond proxies stabilized as systemic recession hazards receded.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO T10Y2Y STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA Technology | $213.66 | -0.80% | + 0.00 |
| AAPL Technology | $348.91 | +1.48% | + 0.00 |
| MSFT Technology | $530.14 | -0.16% | + 0.00 |
| GOOGL Communication Services | $283.82 | -12.64% | + 0.00 |
| GOOG Communication Services | $282.32 | -12.29% | + 0.00 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $243.79 | -4.25% | + 0.00 |
| TSM Technology | $431.81 | -1.75% | + 0.00 |
| SPCX Technology | $143.89 | -0.92% | + 0.00 |
| AVGO Technology | $345.00 | -1.94% | + 0.00 |
| META Communication Services | $624.52 | +1.96% | + 0.00 |