ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

VST // Vistra Corp.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001692819 ↗
Utilities • Electric Utilities: Central
$138.37 ▼ -2.58 (-1.83%)
MKT CAP: $47.31B • VOL: 5.28M
VST // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 41/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
41 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -47% vs NI -64.5% • ROIC-WACC +1.5% • Z 1.28
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
7 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 13% • VS 200D -8% • RSI 44.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +2.8% • P/E 42.1x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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VST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.98%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $142.7H $142.7L $138.4C $138.4VOL 4.94M
RES: $168.1SUP: $132.6SMA50: $145.3SMA200: $153.3
$180.9$167.9$154.8$141.7$128.6RES $168.1SUP $132.6$138.42026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
VST // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Vistra Corp. (VST) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 7.7% return on invested capital within Utilities (Electric Utilities: Central), balanced against a 14.6x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 10.8% operating margin and 7.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 7.7% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +19.1% paired with 2.79% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +19.1% // FCF YLD: 2.79%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.28 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.28 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 50.1x trailing P/E (42.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 50.1x // EV/EBITDA: 14.6x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $138.37 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Electric Utilities: Central require continuous execution to defend 5.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.4% // D/E: 3.00x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 42.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.57).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 50.1x
FORWARD P/E 42.1x
EV / EBITDA 14.6x
FCF YIELD 2.79%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 10.8%
NET MARGIN 5.4%
ROIC % 7.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +19.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.81
DEBT / EQUITY 3.00x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.65%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 44.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.57
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // VSTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $126.61
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>