SERIES: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (3.26)
VIXCLS (17.2)
INDPRO (103.9506)
UMCSENT (48.1)
CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
ICSA (194000)
PAYEMS (159044)
UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
NETLIQ (5745.73)
RRPONTSYD (4.375)
WALCL (6745635)
WTREGEN (999727)
DFII10 (2.63)
DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
FRED // T10Y2Y
10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield Spread
YIELDS Daily
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-10-30 • UNIT: %
LATEST OBSERVATION
0.38 %
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
0.37 (+ 0.01)
YOY CHANGE
-0.12 %
T10Y2Y // 10-Year Minus 2-Year Treasury Yield Spread (%)1Y: -0.11 (-22.4%)
2026-10-30OBSERVATION: 0.38% (%)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. T10Y2Y SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLU | Utilities | +0.11 r | | 1% | [+0.72% per +25 bps] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising T10Y2Y |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | +0.10 r | | 1% | [+0.51% per +25 bps] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising T10Y2Y |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | +0.07 r | | 1% | [+0.62% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLC | Communication Services | +0.05 r | | 0% | [+0.38% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLRE | Real Estate | +0.03 r | | 0% | [+0.21% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLI | Industrials | +0.02 r | | 0% | [+0.14% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLF | Financials | +0.01 r | | 0% | [+0.09% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLV | Health Care | +0.00 r | | 0% | [+0.02% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLE | Energy | -0.01 r | | 0% | [-0.08% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLK | Technology | -0.02 r | | 0% | [-0.19% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
| XLB | Materials | -0.02 r | | 0% | [-0.15% per +25 bps] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y T10Y2Y cycle (261W) |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF NEUTRAL
US TREASURY CURVE UN-INVERSION FLATTENS AT +0.38%: TERM PREMIUM NORMALIZATION SIGNALS POST-STRESS MID-CYCLE TRANSITION
The T10Y2Y spread ticked up sequentially by +0.010% to print at 0.38% (down -0.12% YoY), remaining within its trailing 52-observation corridor of 0.20% to 0.52%. With the curve maintaining a mild positive slope, discount-rate volatility is transitioning from front-end policy uncertainty toward long-end duration adjustments, stabilizing bank net interest margin dynamics while containing systemic credit-spread blowouts. Multiples across high-duration growth face minor valuation compression, while defensive yield proxies show relative stability as term premia re-anchor.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLU // Utilities
Displays the highest positive relationship across the matrix (Pearson r = +0.11, beta sensitivity of +0.72% per +25 bps steepening), benefiting as steepening reflects orderly rate-cut cycles that lower debt refinancing costs on highly leveraged balance sheets.
XLP // Consumer Staples
Carries a Pearson r of +0.10 with a +0.51% sensitivity per +25 bps move; steady terminal rates and an un-inverted 2Y10Y spread support inelastic cash flows and dividend appeal relative to shifting front-end cash yields.
XLY // Consumer Discretionary
Exhibits a Pearson r of +0.07 and beta sensitivity of +0.62% per +25 bps, supported by the curve steepening away from recessionary inversion levels and alleviating tighter consumer credit and financing constraints.
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLK // Technology
Presents an inverse sensitivity with Pearson r = -0.02 and beta sensitivity of -0.19% per +25 bps; rising long-end yields relative to short-term paper trigger DCF multiple contraction across long-duration software and semiconductor equities.
XLB // Materials
Displays a negative correlation (Pearson r = -0.02, beta sensitivity of -0.15% per +25 bps), facing headwinds from term premium elevation and muted global industrial demand despite curve steepening.
XLE // Energy
Registers a slightly negative Pearson r of -0.01 with a -0.08% beta response per +25 bps, as mild disinflationary bull/bear steepening dynamics fail to inject upward momentum into crude demand and upstream capex multiples.
HISTORICAL ANALOG // 2024 Post-Inversion Re-Steepening Regime: Following protracted 2022-2023 inversion, the 2Y10Y spread rebuilt positive territory around +30 to +50 bps via mixed front-end policy easing and back-end term-premium re-pricing. During this transition, cyclicals and mega-cap tech experienced factor dispersion and valuation consolidation, while dividend-yielding defensive factors and rate-sensitive bond proxies stabilized as systemic recession hazards receded.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO T10Y2Y STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA Technology | $213.66 | -0.80% | + 0.00 |
| AAPL Technology | $348.91 | +1.48% | + 0.00 |
| MSFT Technology | $530.14 | -0.16% | + 0.00 |
| GOOGL Communication Services | $283.82 | -12.64% | + 0.00 |
| GOOG Communication Services | $282.32 | -12.29% | + 0.00 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $243.79 | -4.25% | + 0.00 |
| TSM Technology | $431.81 | -1.75% | + 0.00 |
| SPCX Technology | $143.89 | -0.92% | + 0.00 |
| AVGO Technology | $345.00 | -1.94% | + 0.00 |
| META Communication Services | $624.52 | +1.96% | + 0.00 |