SERIES: BAMLH0A0HYM2 (3.26)
VIXCLS (17.2)
INDPRO (103.9506)
UMCSENT (48.1)
CPIAUCSL (336.298)
CPILFESL (338.896)
DCOILWTICO (103.37)
MORTGAGE30US (7.24)
PCEPI (132.257)
ICSA (194000)
PAYEMS (159044)
UNRATE (4.2)
M2SL (23413.9)
NETLIQ (5745.73)
RRPONTSYD (4.375)
WALCL (6745635)
WTREGEN (999727)
DFII10 (2.63)
DGS10 (4.98)
DGS2 (4.61)
FEDFUNDS (3.75)
SOFR (3.94)
T10Y2Y (0.38)
FRED // CPILFESL
Core Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy
INFLATION Monthly
OBSERVATION DATE: 2026-09-01 • UNIT: Index
LATEST OBSERVATION
338.896 Index
PRIOR / PERIOD Δ
337.765 (+ 1.13)
YOY CHANGE
+ 2.57 Index
CPILFESL // Core Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (Index)1Y: +8.48 (+2.6%)
2026-09-01OBSERVATION: 338.90 (Index)
11 S&P 500 GICS SECTOR PEARSON CORRELATION MATRIX VS. CPILFESL SORTED TAILWIND (+r) ──► HEADWIND (-r)
| ETF | GICS SECTOR | PEARSON r | CORRELATION BAR (-1 TO +1) | R² | BETA / REGIME TRANSMISSION |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE | Energy | +0.09 r | | 1% | [+5.02% per +1% delta] Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising CPILFESL |
| XLU | Utilities | -0.07 r | | 1% | [-2.81% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y CPILFESL cycle (258W) |
| XLB | Materials | -0.07 r | | 1% | [-3.07% per +1% delta] Low-beta regime neutral across 5Y CPILFESL cycle (258W) |
| XLC | Communication Services | -0.12 r | | 1% | [-4.79% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPILFESL upswings |
| XLF | Financials | -0.13 r | | 2% | [-5.06% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPILFESL upswings |
| XLI | Industrials | -0.13 r | | 2% | [-4.99% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPILFESL upswings |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | -0.13 r | | 2% | [-3.92% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPILFESL upswings |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -0.14 r | | 2% | [-6.85% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPILFESL upswings |
| XLRE | Real Estate | -0.16 r | | 3% | [-6.7% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPILFESL upswings |
| XLK | Technology | -0.17 r | | 3% | [-9.29% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPILFESL upswings |
| XLV | Health Care | -0.21 r | | 4% | [-6.62% per +1% delta] Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPILFESL upswings |
AI MACRO REGIME IMPACT BRIEF RESTRICTIVE
Core Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (CPILFESL) Prints 338.896 Index (Prior: 337.765 Index)
Cross-asset regression across S&P 500 GICS sectors demonstrates significant factor dispersion to Core Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy. Portfolio managers utilize CPILFESL inflections to rotate between short-duration cash-flow sectors and long-duration growth multiples.
▲ REGIME TAILWIND SECTORS
XLE // Energy
Modest pro-cyclical beta benefit on rising CPILFESL (Pearson r = +0.09, R² = 1%)
▼ REGIME HEADWIND SECTORS
XLV // Health Care
Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPILFESL upswings (Pearson r = -0.21, R² = 4%)
XLK // Technology
Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPILFESL upswings (Pearson r = -0.17, R² = 3%)
XLRE // Real Estate
Defensive/rate-sensitive drag during CPILFESL upswings (Pearson r = -0.16, R² = 3%)
HISTORICAL ANALOG // Comparable to 2022–2025 post-ZIRP monetary normalization where real-rate sensitivity dominated equity factor attribution.
EQUITIES MOST SENSITIVE TO CPILFESL STOCK BETA
| TICKER | LAST | % CHG | CORR (r) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA Technology | $213.66 | -0.80% | + 0.00 |
| AAPL Technology | $348.91 | +1.48% | + 0.00 |
| MSFT Technology | $530.14 | -0.16% | + 0.00 |
| GOOGL Communication Services | $283.82 | -12.64% | + 0.00 |
| GOOG Communication Services | $282.32 | -12.29% | + 0.00 |
| AMZN Consumer Discretionary | $243.79 | -4.25% | + 0.00 |
| TSM Technology | $431.81 | -1.75% | + 0.00 |
| SPCX Technology | $143.89 | -0.92% | + 0.00 |
| AVGO Technology | $345.00 | -1.94% | + 0.00 |
| META Communication Services | $624.52 | +1.96% | + 0.00 |