ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ONB // Old National Bancorp

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000707179 ↗
Financials • Major Banks
$25.09 ▼ -0.14 (-0.56%)
MKT CAP: $9.49B • VOL: 3.92M
ONB // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // C+ (RQD 66) -> C (RQD 65)
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
65 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +7.7% vs NI +24.1% • ROIC-WACC -6.7% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +6.7% • P/E 13.3x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.00 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.45
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

Why did ONB's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever ONB is Upgraded or Downgraded.

ONB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.51%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $25.23H $25.23L $25.09C $25.09VOL 3.92M
RES: $28.58SUP: $23.24SMA50: $25.18SMA200: $24.65
$27.71$26.28$24.85$23.42$21.99RES $28.58SUP $23.24$25.092026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
ONB // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 39/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Old National Bancorp (ONB) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 1.9% return on invested capital within Financials (Major Banks), balanced against a 40.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 30.6% operating margin and 1.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 1.9% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -2.2% paired with 6.68% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -2.2% // FCF YLD: 6.68%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 14.3x trailing P/E (13.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 14.3x // EV/EBITDA: 40.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $25.09 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Major Banks require continuous execution to defend 25.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 25.0% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 13.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.97).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 14.3x
FORWARD P/E 13.3x
EV / EBITDA 40.3x
FCF YIELD 6.68%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 30.6%
NET MARGIN 25.0%
ROIC % 1.9%
REV GROWTH YOY -2.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.77
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.36%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.97
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ONBPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $22.96
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for ONB & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>