Old National Bancorp (ONB) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$25.09 -0.56% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.02

Old National Bancorp (ONB) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $9.49B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ONB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $25.09 (-0.56% 1D, market cap $9.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ONB ranks #231 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ONB compare to ZION and CFR in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ONB carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.9%. By comparison, ZION (Zions Bancorporation N.A.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 2.8%, cap $9.54B) and CFR (Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $9.80B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZION leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while CFR leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONB?
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Per ONB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000707179), Old National Bancorp generated $0 in revenue, $669.3M in net income, and $637.4M in free cash flow against $72.15B in total assets and $28.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.02 (-0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 15.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510065
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-
Cash (11)Whales (11)SEC (15)Macro (13)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target
$31 Bull$26 Base$20 Bear
📬 FREE ONB RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ONB SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
57
Grade C$24.51+0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$24.59+0.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
62
Grade C+$24.73+1.5% Next Q
Current
65
Grade C$25.09+1.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ONB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, ONB faces multiple-compression risk if 14.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($25.18) or 200D SMA ($24.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($25.88) toward Bear Floor ($20.19).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ONB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
50.330 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREHIGH QUALITY (7–9)
7 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE71% OF RANGE
L: $20$25.09H: $27
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 11 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 26 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground) on ONB

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (55)

1.9% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 6.68% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BULLISH (75)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 7/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
NEUTRAL (65)

26/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 13/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like ONB
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
  • ✓Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (ONB Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
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RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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ONB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.51%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $25.23H $25.23L $25.09C $25.09VOL 3.92M
RES: $28.58SUP: $23.24SMA50: $25.18SMA200: $24.65
$27.71$26.28$24.85$23.42$21.99RES $28.58SUP $23.24$25.092026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ONB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
6.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONB)

Financials Rank #231 of 1096 ⚔️ ZION vs ONB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ONB vs. ZION, CFR, BPOP, SSB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Old National Bancorp (ONB) ranks #231 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #194 by equity capitalization ($9.49B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ZION leads on earnings valuation at 10.8x trailing P/E, while CFR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and — gross margin. BPOP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with ONB at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ONB ACTIVE
Old National Bancorp
C 65/100 14.3x — 1.9% -0.56% $9.49B Benchmark Subject
ZION
Zions Bancorporation N.A.
C 64/100 10.8x — 2.8% -1.30% $9.54B /zion-vs-onb →
CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.
C- 60/100 15.1x — 3.4% -0.16% $9.80B /cfr-vs-onb →
BPOP
Popular Inc.
C+ 67/100 12.1x — 3.1% -1.19% $9.99B /bpop-vs-onb →
SSB
SouthState Bank Corporation
C- 60/100 12.9x — 3.0% -0.88% $10.20B /ssb-vs-onb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000707179

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Old National Bancorp (ONB) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $669.3M, operating cash flow of $681.5M, and free cash flow of $637.4M (+7.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONB closed FY2025 with $72.15B in total assets against $28.65B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 $669.3M $681.5M $637.4M $72.15B $28.65B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $0 $539.2M $622.3M $592.0M $53.55B $21.25B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $0 $582.0M $516.3M $516.3M $5.25B $1.23B

3. ONB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ONB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $25.09 (-0.56% 1D, market cap $9.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ONB ranks #231 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ONB compare to ZION and CFR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ONB carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.9%. By comparison, ZION (Zions Bancorporation N.A.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 2.8%, cap $9.54B) and CFR (Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $9.80B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZION leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while CFR leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONB?

Per ONB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000707179), Old National Bancorp generated $0 in revenue, $669.3M in net income, and $637.4M in free cash flow against $72.15B in total assets and $28.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ONB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ONB last traded at $25.09 (-0.56% on volume of 3,916,465 shares), positioning the stock -0.36% below its 50-day simple moving average ($25.18) and +1.78% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.65). Across its 52-week range of $19.60 to $27.36, ONB sits at the 70.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($24.01 to $26.17).

ONB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell ONB stock right now?

Old National Bancorp (ONB) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C (Hold — HOLD) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (2% return on capital), mixed timing at 14x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is ONB's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

ONB's 12-month base price target is $25.88 (range $20.19 to $30.54), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ONB — Old National Bancorp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:16:56Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ONB scores 66 out of 100, earning a C+ grade and the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 11 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 1.9% and an FCF yield of 6.68%. For an investor, the low ROIC relative to the company's size suggests capital is not being deployed at high returns, while the FCF yield indicates reasonable cash generation relative to market value. This is a moderate, not strong, cash engine.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The pillar is below midpoint, so institutional conviction is present but not decisive. Holder-level detail is not available in source data, so the score cannot be traced to specific filers.
  • Insider Conviction: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the second-strongest pillar, suggesting insider activity leans constructive, though the underlying transactions are not itemized in source data.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects a beta of 0.97 and sector sensitivity. A beta just under 1.0 implies the stock has tended to move roughly in line with the broad market, neither amplifying nor dampening market swings, which may suit investors seeking moderate market exposure.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 15 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. This is the strongest pillar and points to a sound financial-health profile.

Investment implications: the upside case rests on balance-sheet strength and insider activity, and on the stock's valuation (P/E TTM of 14.3 and Forward P/E of 13.3 per the market data) if earnings hold. The tradeoffs are the low ROIC of 1.9% and an EV/EBITDA of 40.3, which per the market data is elevated and warrants scrutiny given the thin ROIC. The "Watch for Breakout" label indicates the rating sees neutral momentum with potential directional change pending confirmation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
25.23$9.54B14.313.340.31.772.36%0.97$19.6 - $27.361.9%

Business

ONB is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry, per the company profile. Beyond this classification, the specific products, customer segments, and revenue mechanics are not available in source data. Revenue is reported as $0.0M across all periods in the financials, which the source does not explain.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$789.7M$669.3MN/A$637.4M$1826.2M$28645.7M
FY 2024$0.0M$636.2M$539.2MN/A$592.0M$1228.0M$21245.4M
FY 2023$0.0M$686.8M$582.0MN/A$516.3MN/A$1228.2M

Net income rose from $539.2M in FY 2024 to $669.3M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials. Per the market data, the operating margin is 30.6%, net margin is 25%, and ROIC is 1.9%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 7/9. Debt rose from $21245.4M to $28645.7M between FY 2024 and FY 2025, and Debt/Equity is 0.5 per the RQD pillar data. FY 2023 debt of $1228.2M appears inconsistent with later periods and cannot be reconciled from source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news feed, the headlines describe the following:

  • A RED / RISK WATCH item reporting a modest fair-value cut as analysts trim targets.
  • A YELLOW / MARKET WIRE item describing the stock catching up to strong Q3 earnings.
  • A YELLOW / MARKET WIRE item describing solid efficiency despite margin compression.
  • A YELLOW / MARKET WIRE item comparing ONB with regional bank peers in Q3.
  • A YELLOW / MARKET WIRE item reporting earnings matched but revenue short of estimates.
  • A YELLOW / MARKET WIRE item covering institutional buying and selling activity.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply_chain is NONE, no butterfly links exist, and there are no proprietary signals. The only risk-flagged item is the target-trim headline, and the news feed alone does not quantify its magnitude.

Open Questions

  • Why does the financials feed report revenue as $0.0M in every period, and what is the correct top-line figure?
  • Why is FY 2023 debt reported at $1228.2M and cash as N/A, when FY 2024 and FY 2025 show debt above $21B?
  • What specific insider, 13F, and Congressional transactions underpin the 15/20 and 12/20 pillar scores?
  • What is driving the ROIC of 1.9% alongside an EV/EBITDA of 40.3, and does the earnings trajectory justify that combination?
  • What is the magnitude and rationale of the analyst target trims referenced in the RED-flagged headline?

ONB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Old National Bancorp (ONB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ONB Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ONB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $25.09?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ONB 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ONB:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $27.25 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is ONB (C+ • RQD 66/100) a Buy at $25.23?

Welcome to the ONB (Old National Bancorp) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 66/100 (Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout) in Major Banks. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

FO ForensicBear Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $20.18 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $25.23

Pump the brakes on ONB — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on ONB, but look at what you are paying: 14.3x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Old National Bancorp expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $31.03 (+23.0%)
Spot @ $25.23

ONB cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on ONB, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Major Banks and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $25.23 (52-wk range $19.60 - $27.36), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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