What is ONB's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for ONB.

Stock Ratings / Financials / ONB / options

ZION (64) CFR (60) BPOP (67) SSB (60) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Old National Bancorp (ONB) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$25.09 -0.56% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.02

Old National Bancorp (ONB) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 65/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $9.49B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on ONB Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ONB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 65/100 at a spot price of $25.09 (-0.56% 1D, market cap $9.49B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ONB ranks #231 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ONB compare to ZION and CFR in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), ONB carries a Roarable C (65/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.9%. By comparison, ZION (Zions Bancorporation N.A.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 10.8x, ROIC 2.8%, cap $9.54B) and CFR (Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 15.1x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $9.80B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ZION leads on earnings multiple (10.8x) while CFR leads on capital efficiency (3.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONB?

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Per ONB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000707179), Old National Bancorp generated $2.21B in revenue (+24.1% YoY), $669.3M in net income, and $637.4M in free cash flow against $72.15B in total assets and $28.65B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $25.02 (-0.29%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 28.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 65/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (65/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ONB SCORES 65/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$24.51+0.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$24.59+0.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$24.73+1.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C$25.09+1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → C (65)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the ONB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 65/100 (C) score, ONB faces multiple-compression risk if 14.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($25.18) or 200D SMA ($24.65) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($25.88) toward Bear Floor ($20.19).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ONB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 65%NO 35%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.3%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ONB)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ONB.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating ONB & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on ONB
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ONB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.51%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-03O $25.23H $25.23L $25.09C $25.09VOL 3.92M

RES: $28.58SUP: $23.24SMA50: $25.18SMA200: $24.65

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ONB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ONB Butterfly Map → + Track ONB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

6.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONB)

Financials Rank #231 of 1096 ⚔️ ZION vs ONB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ONB vs. ZION, CFR, BPOP, SSB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Old National Bancorp (ONB) ranks #231 by composite RQD confidence (65/100, grade C) and #194 by equity capitalization ($9.49B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ZION leads on earnings valuation at 10.8x trailing P/E, while CFR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.4% ROIC and — gross margin. BPOP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with ONB at 65/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ONB ACTIVE Old National Bancorp	C	65/100	14.3x	—	1.9%	-0.56%	$9.49B	Benchmark Subject
ZION Zions Bancorporation N.A.	C	64/100	10.8x	—	2.8%	-1.30%	$9.54B	/zion-vs-onb →
CFR Cullen/Frost Bankers Inc.	C-	60/100	15.1x	—	3.4%	-0.16%	$9.80B	/cfr-vs-onb →
BPOP Popular Inc.	C+	67/100	12.1x	—	3.1%	-1.19%	$9.99B	/bpop-vs-onb →
SSB SouthState Bank Corporation	C-	60/100	12.9x	—	3.0%	-0.88%	$10.20B	/ssb-vs-onb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000707179

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Old National Bancorp (ONB) reported GAAP revenue of $2.21B (+24.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.78B , and +15.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $669.3M, operating cash flow of $681.5M, and free cash flow of $637.4M (+7.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONB closed FY2025 with $72.15B in total assets against $28.65B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$2.21B	$669.3M	$681.5M	$637.4M	$72.15B	$28.65B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$1.78B	$539.2M	$622.3M	$592.0M	$53.55B	$21.25B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$1.92B	$582.0M	$516.3M	$516.3M	$5.25B	$1.23B

3. ONB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ONB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does ONB compare to ZION and CFR in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONB?

Where is ONB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ONB last traded at $25.09 (-0.56% on volume of 3,916,465 shares), positioning the stock -0.36% below its 50-day simple moving average ($25.18) and +1.78% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.65). Across its 52-week range of $19.60 to $27.36, ONB sits at the 70.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.3% ($24.01 to $26.17).

Direct Sub-Reports: ONB RQD Cockpit ONB 12M Forecast ONB Earnings & Move ONB Dividends & DRIP ONB Insiders & 13F ONB Whale Options ONB Profit Sankey ONB News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 65/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

ONB — Old National Bancorp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:16:56Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, ONB scores 66 out of 100, earning a C+ grade and the verdict "Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout." The five pillars are:

Fundamental Cash Engine: 11 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects ROIC of 1.9% and an FCF yield of 6.68%. For an investor, the low ROIC relative to the company's size suggests capital is not being deployed at high returns, while the FCF yield indicates reasonable cash generation relative to market value. This is a moderate, not strong, cash engine.
Whale 13F Flow: 12 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar captures institutional accumulation and options positioning. The pillar is below midpoint, so institutional conviction is present but not decisive.
Insider Conviction: 15 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. This is the second-strongest pillar, suggesting insider activity leans constructive, though the underlying transactions are not itemized in source data.
Macro Regime Fit: 13 / 20. Per the Roarable RQD rating, this reflects a beta of 0.97 and sector sensitivity. A beta just under 1.0 implies the stock has tended to move roughly in line with the broad market, neither amplifying nor dampening market swings, which may suit investors seeking moderate market exposure.
Forensic Balance Sheet: 15 / 20. Per the RQD rating, this pillar reflects Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. This is the strongest pillar and points to a sound financial-health profile.

Investment implications: the upside case rests on balance-sheet strength and insider activity, and on the stock's valuation (P/E TTM of 14.3 and Forward P/E of 13.3 per the market data) if earnings hold. The tradeoffs are the low ROIC of 1.9% and an EV/EBITDA of 40.3, which per the market data is elevated and warrants scrutiny given the thin ROIC. The "Watch for Breakout" label indicates the rating sees neutral momentum with potential directional change pending confirmation.

Business

ONB is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry. Revenue is reported as — across all periods in the financials, which the source does not explain.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the news feed, the headlines describe the following:

A RED / RISK WATCH item reporting a modest fair-value cut as analysts trim targets.
A YELLOW / MARKET WIRE item describing the stock catching up to strong Q3 earnings.
A YELLOW / MARKET WIRE item describing solid efficiency despite margin compression.
A YELLOW / MARKET WIRE item comparing ONB with regional bank peers in Q3.
A YELLOW / MARKET WIRE item reporting earnings matched but revenue short of estimates.
A YELLOW / MARKET WIRE item covering institutional buying and selling activity.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, supply_chain is NONE, no butterfly links exist, and there are no proprietary signals. The only risk-flagged item is the target-trim headline, and the news feed alone does not quantify its magnitude.

Butterfly Effect: 2nd-Order Supply-Chain & Sector Ripples

— The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists no upstream or downstream dependencies, no sector correlations, and no bottlenecks. Investors should note that the source does not establish how ONB's sector peers or macro factors transmit to its results.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst data: —

Holders (SEC Form 4, 13F, Congressional trades): —

Open Questions

Why does the financials feed report revenue as — in every period, and what is the correct top-line figure?
Why is FY 2023 debt reported at $1.23B and cash as N/A, when FY 2024 and FY 2025 show debt above $21B?
What specific insider, 13F, and Congressional transactions underpin the 15/20 and 12/20 pillar scores?
What is driving the ROIC of 1.9% alongside an EV/EBITDA of 40.3, and does the earnings trajectory justify that combination?
What is the magnitude and rationale of the analyst target trims referenced in the RED-flagged headline?

ONB Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Old National Bancorp (ONB) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ONB Debate Forum (3) ↓

🔴 RISK WATCH Yahoo Finance • 19h ago

Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock Sees Modest Fair Value Cut As Analysts Trim Targets

Yahoo Finance report covering Old National Bancorp (ONB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 22h ago

Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock Catches Up To Strong Q3 Earnings

Yahoo Finance report covering Old National Bancorp (ONB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Old National Bancorp: Solid Efficiency Despite Margin Compression (NASDAQ:ONB)

Seeking Alpha report covering Old National Bancorp (ONB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Regional banks stocks Q3 in review: Old National Bank (NASDAQ:ONB) vs peers

TradingView report covering Old National Bancorp (ONB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

Old National Bancorp earnings matched, revenue fell short of estimates

Investing.com report covering Old National Bancorp (ONB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 1d ago

Who's Buying or Selling Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock Today?

GuruFocus report covering Old National Bancorp (ONB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Seeking Alpha • 1d ago

Old National Bancorp Is Deserving Of An Upgrade (NASDAQ:ONB)

Seeking Alpha report covering Old National Bancorp (ONB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Old National Bancorp (ONB) On Record Earnings And 2026 Guidance The Stock Still Looks Undervalued

Yahoo Finance report covering Old National Bancorp (ONB) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ONB Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $25.09?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ONB 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeepValue_CFA Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $30.36 (+21.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) and a 13.3 forward P/E give the stock a sound financia

Forensic balance-sheet strength (Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 7/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) and a 13.3 forward P/E give the stock a sound financial base and modest valuation.. When you look under the hood at ONB, Fundamental Cash Engine is 11/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 1.9% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (11/20) has been quietly accumulating below $27.36. My 12M target is $30.36.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@BearTrap_Alert Fair point on 14.3x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Major Banks. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

BE BearTrap_Alert Cycle Peak Watcher 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $21.58 (-14.0%)

Spot @ $25.09

ROIC of 1.9% paired with an EV/EBITDA of 40.3 signals weak capital returns against an elevated enterprise valuation, with a RED-flagged

ROIC of 1.9% paired with an EV/EBITDA of 40.3 signals weak capital returns against an elevated enterprise valuation, with a RED-flagged analyst target trim already in the news feed.. Look at the math on ONB: paying 14.3x trailing P/E for 1.9% ROIC and 30.6% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Major Banks demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $22.08 before getting long.