ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CHH // Choice Hotels International Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001046311 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Hotels/Resorts
$111.16 ▼ -1.81 (-1.60%)
MKT CAP: $5.02B • VOL: 813.6K
CHH // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 59/100 [C-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
59 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -20% vs NI +23.4% • ROIC-WACC +11.1% • Z 3.26
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 68% • VS 200D +3.8% • RSI 57.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +3.9% • P/E 12.8x • F-SCORE 5/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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CHH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.15%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $113.0H $113.0L $111.2C $111.2VOL 813.6K
RES: $115.1SUP: $88.03SMA50: $104.4SMA200: $107.1
$119.7$113.2$106.7$100.2$93.76RES $115.1SUP $88.03$111.22026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
CHH // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 51/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Choice Hotels International Inc. (CHH) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 17.3% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Hotels/Resorts), balanced against a 13.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 28.1% operating margin and 17.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 17.3% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +0.8% paired with 3.89% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +0.8% // FCF YLD: 3.89%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.26 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.26 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 13.8x trailing P/E (12.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 13.8x // EV/EBITDA: 13.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $111.16 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Hotels/Resorts require continuous execution to defend 23.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 23.2% // D/E: 8.50x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 12.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.13).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 13.8x
FORWARD P/E 12.8x
EV / EBITDA 13.7x
FCF YIELD 3.89%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 28.1%
NET MARGIN 23.2%
ROIC % 17.3%
REV GROWTH YOY +0.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $8.19
DEBT / EQUITY 8.50x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.05%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 57.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.13
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CHHPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $101.72
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>