ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ALSN // Allison Transmission Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001411207 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Auto Parts:O.E.M.
$108.05 ▼ -1.93 (-1.75%)
MKT CAP: $9.08B • VOL: 656.8K
ALSN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 60/100 [C-] (+1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
61 / 100 +1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF +0.5% vs NI -14.8% • ROIC-WACC +14.4% • Z 2.61
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
9 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 53% • VS 200D -7.2% • RSI 45.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +7.3% • P/E 13.6x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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ALSN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.27%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $109.3H $110.0L $108.1C $108.1VOL 664.6K
RES: $135.6SUP: $105.3SMA50: $116.9SMA200: $118.5
$137.1$127.1$117.1$107.2$97.19RES $135.6SUP $105.3$108.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
ALSN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 50/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc. (ALSN) exhibits 48.6% gross margins and 21.3% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Auto Parts:O.E.M.), balanced against a 10.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 48.6% gross profitability converts into 29.2% operating margin and 21.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 21.3% // GM: 48.6%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -6.7% paired with 7.28% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -6.7% // FCF YLD: 7.28%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.61 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.61 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 14.6x trailing P/E (13.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 14.6x // EV/EBITDA: 10.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $108.05 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Auto Parts:O.E.M. require continuous execution to defend 20.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 20.7% // D/E: 1.55x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 13.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.98).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 14.6x
FORWARD P/E 13.6x
EV / EBITDA 10.2x
FCF YIELD 7.28%
GROSS MARGIN 48.6%
OPERATING MARGIN 29.2%
NET MARGIN 20.7%
ROIC % 21.3%
REV GROWTH YOY -6.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $7.54
DEBT / EQUITY 1.55x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 45.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.98
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ALSNPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $98.87
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>