ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AAL // American Airlines Group Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000006201 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Air Freight/Delivery Services
$12.60 ▼ -0.18 (-1.41%)
MKT CAP: $8.47B • VOL: 60.05M
AAL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 53/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
53 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF -58.5% vs NI -86.9% • ROIC-WACC +77.1% • Z 0.74
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 31% • VS 200D -5.3% • RSI 51.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +7.6% • P/E 71x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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AAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.69%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $12.58H $12.78L $12.58C $12.60VOL 63.19M
RES: $12.79SUP: $11.47SMA50: $12.91SMA200: $13.50
$19.30$17.19$15.07$12.96$10.84RES $12.79SUP $11.47$12.602026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
AAL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 84/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 85.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Air Freight/Delivery Services), balanced against a 3.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 2.7% operating margin and 85.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 85.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +0.8% paired with 7.56% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +0.8% // FCF YLD: 7.56%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.74 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.74 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 76.3x trailing P/E (71.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 76.3x // EV/EBITDA: 3.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $12.60 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Air Freight/Delivery Services require continuous execution to defend 0.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.2% // D/E: 0.85x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 71.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.08).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 76.3x
FORWARD P/E 71.0x
EV / EBITDA 3.8x
FCF YIELD 7.56%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 2.7%
NET MARGIN 0.2%
ROIC % 85.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +0.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.17
DEBT / EQUITY 0.85x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 51.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.08
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AALPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $11.53
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>