American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$12.60 -1.41% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.54

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $8.47B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on AAL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is AAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-02, American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $12.60 (-1.41% 1D, market cap $8.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AAL ranks #493 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does AAL compare to LTM and CPA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), AAL carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 76.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, LTM (LATAM Airlines Group S.A. American) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $12.62B) and CPA (Copa Holdings S.A.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FDXF leads on earnings multiple (25.0x) while AAL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AAL?
▼

Per AAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000006201), American Airlines Group Inc. generated $54.63B in revenue (+0.8% YoY), $111.0M in net income, and $640.5M in free cash flow against $61.77B in total assets and $14.46B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.54 (-0.44%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 1.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510053
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D-
Cash (15)Whales (10)SEC (10)Macro (6)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
$20 Bull$12 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE AAL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for AAL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY AAL SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.2% FCF Margin ($640.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51.8) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$12.50-3.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$12.11+4.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$12.61-0.1% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$12.60-0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (45) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AAL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While AAL currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.91) and Max Pain ($13.23) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.73.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $AAL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “AAL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
51.830 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)
0.74>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)
6 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE29% OF RANGE
L: $10$12.60H: $19
1. Money & Cash Health● HEALTHY
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Real cash coming in backs up reported profits (steady margins and healthy balance-sheet cushion).

Factor Grade: BRQD 15 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: D+RQD 22 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 16 / 40
MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on AAL

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
BULLISH (75)

85.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 7.56% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 0.74 and Piotroski 6/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (47)

22/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like AAL
  • ✓Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Priced at 76x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AAL)

  • ✓Walkthrough of AAL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
AAL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.69%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $12.58H $12.78L $12.58C $12.60VOL 63.19M
RES: $12.79SUP: $11.47SMA50: $12.91SMA200: $13.50
$19.30$17.19$15.07$12.96$10.84RES $12.79SUP $11.47$12.602026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

AAL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +0.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AAL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AAL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for AAL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AAL)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #493 of 1011 ⚔️ LTM vs AAL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AAL vs. LTM, CPA, FDXF, ALK)

Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) ranks #493 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #186 by equity capitalization ($8.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FDXF leads on earnings valuation at 25.0x trailing P/E, while AAL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CPA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with AAL at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
AAL ACTIVE
American Airlines Group Inc.
D+ 53/100 76.3x — 85.0% -1.41% $8.47B Benchmark Subject
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group S.A. American
D 49/100 32.8x — 9.9% -3.59% $12.62B /ltm-vs-aal →
CPA
Copa Holdings S.A.
D+ 56/100 32.8x — 9.9% -1.78% $5.40B /cpa-vs-aal →
FDXF
FedEx Freight Holding Company Inc.
D 45/100 25.0x — 8.3% +14.91% $16.40B /fdxf-vs-aal →
ALK
Alaska Air Group Inc.
D- 43/100 40.3x — 2.9% -1.22% $4.03B /alk-vs-aal →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000006201

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) reported GAAP revenue of $54.63B (+0.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $54.21B , and +3.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $111.0M, operating cash flow of $3.10B, and free cash flow of $640.5M (-58.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AAL closed FY2025 with $61.77B in total assets against $14.46B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.74, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $54.63B $111.0M $3.10B $640.5M $61.77B $14.46B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $54.21B $846.0M $3.98B $1.54B $61.78B $14.46B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $52.79B $822.0M $3.80B $1.43B $63.35B $14.82B

3. AAL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is AAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $12.60 (-1.41% 1D, market cap $8.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AAL ranks #493 in composite RQD confidence.

How does AAL compare to LTM and CPA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), AAL carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 76.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, LTM (LATAM Airlines Group S.A. American) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $12.62B) and CPA (Copa Holdings S.A.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FDXF leads on earnings multiple (25.0x) while AAL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AAL?

Per AAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000006201), American Airlines Group Inc. generated $54.63B in revenue (+0.8% YoY), $111.0M in net income, and $640.5M in free cash flow against $61.77B in total assets and $14.46B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is AAL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

AAL last traded at $12.60 (-1.41% on volume of 60,054,252 shares), positioning the stock -2.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.91) and -6.67% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.50). Across its 52-week range of $10.09 to $18.79, AAL sits at the 28.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.4% ($11.54 to $13.66).

AAL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell AAL stock right now?

American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell — SELL) with 53/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 76x P/E (85% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is AAL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

AAL's 12-month base price target is $12.32 (range $9.61 to $19.73), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 53/100 (D+) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

AAL — American Airlines Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:17:27Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, AAL scores 53 out of 100, grading D+ and carrying the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores 15 of 20, anchored by an ROIC of 85% and an FCF yield of 7.56%. The strong ROIC figure is the main upside driver in the rating, though it sits alongside thin reported margins (operating margin 2.7%, net margin 0.2%), so an investor should check how the ROIC is being produced before treating it as durable. The Whale 13F Flow pillar scores 10 of 20 for institutional accumulation and options positioning, indicating only modest institutional conviction. The Insider Conviction pillar scores 12 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The Macro Regime Fit pillar scores 6 of 20, reflecting a beta of 1.08 and sector sensitivity, which means the stock is expected to move somewhat more than the market and is exposed to sector-wide conditions. The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 10 of 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 0.74, a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.85; the low Altman Z-Score is the most significant balance-sheet warning in the source data. Taken together, the rating frames the stock as one where a prospective investor faces a valuation tradeoff: the market data shows a trailing P/E of 76.3 and a forward P/E of 71, against an EV/EBITDA of 3.8, and the rating's verdict signals weak overall fundamentals. This is educational context, not a recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
12.78$8.47B76.3713.80.170%1.08$10.09 - $18.7985%

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news and catalysts feed, six items reference AAL. A "CATALYST" item from the American Airlines source reports that the company set new revenue records amid historic fuel cost pressure, flagged green. Other items, from Yahoo Finance, Trefis, The Motley Fool, and 24/7 Wall St., are flagged yellow and are framed around valuation, whether the stock looks undervalued given light sales, and a year-to-date decline of 23%. The feed's own summaries are generic and do not contain quantitative detail. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded for this issuer.

Open Questions

  • What is driving the 85% ROIC given operating margin of 2.7% and net margin of 0.2%, and how does that reconcile with the declining operating income shown in the SEC financials?
  • What are the period-end cash balances, and how does the $14455.1M debt load compare against them in FY 2025?
  • What is the reported EPS for each fiscal year, given the EPS field is listed as N/A in the financials, and how does it reconcile with the $0.17 EPS (TTM)?
  • What caused the 0.74 Altman Z-Score, and how does the balance sheet risk weigh against the 6/9 Piotroski F-Score?
  • What is the source of the revenue record and fuel cost pressure cited in the catalyst feed, and what quantitative impact does it have on forward earnings?

AAL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to AAL Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

AAL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.60?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON AAL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on AAL:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $13.80 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AAL (D+ • RQD 53/100) a Buy at $12.78?

Welcome to the AAL (American Airlines Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 53/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Air Freight/Delivery Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (76.3x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.61 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $12.78

Pump the brakes on AAL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AAL, but look at what you are paying: 76.3x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless American Airlines Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

QU QuantViper Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $15.98 (+25.0%)
Spot @ $12.78

AAL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AAL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Air Freight/Delivery Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $12.78 (52-wk range $10.09 - $18.79), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

LIVE TAPE SPY $755.72 -0.38% QQQ $690.49 -1.44% DIA $517.13 -0.37% IWM $279.33 +0.96% NVDA $204.64 -4.22% AAPL $344.63 -1.23% MSFT $521.91 -1.55% TSLA $399.81 -0.86% PLTR $184.11 -6.27% SOFI $16.76 -4.83% IBIT $43.36 -0.94% GLD $355.78 -1.34%