Yahoo Finance report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why AAL Stock slipped -1.41% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is AAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $12.60 (-1.41% 1D, market cap $8.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AAL ranks #493 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does AAL compare to LTM and CPA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), AAL carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 76.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, LTM (LATAM Airlines Group S.A. American) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $12.62B) and CPA (Copa Holdings S.A.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FDXF leads on earnings multiple (25.0x) while AAL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AAL?
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Per AAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000006201), American Airlines Group Inc. generated $54.63B in revenue (+0.8% YoY), $111.0M in net income, and $640.5M in free cash flow against $61.77B in total assets and $14.46B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.2% FCF Margin ($640.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (51.8) create a -14 pt regime headwind
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a AAL Turnaround Squeeze
While AAL currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.91) and Max Pain ($13.23) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.73.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Why AAL Stock slipped -1.41% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) slipped -1.41% to $12.60, trading at 29% of its 52-week range ($10.09 – $18.79). Stretched risk/reward at 76x P/E (85% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 29% of its 52-week range ($10.09 – $18.79) with RSI-14 at 51.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.4% around $12.60 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $640.5M annual free cash flow.
Trefis report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
American Airlines report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The pullback in oil futures is a welcome reprieve for the likes of JetBlue, Delta, and other major carriers.
Airline stocks are rising as oil prices tumble on hopes that U.S.-Iran talks could ease supply fears, according to reports from The Wall Street Journal, CNBC and the Financial Times. JetBlue Airways (NASDAQ:JBLU) stock i
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring AAL)
- ✓Walkthrough of AAL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
AAL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +0.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on AAL today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for AAL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (AAL)
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (AAL vs. LTM, CPA, FDXF, ALK)
Industry: Air Freight/Delivery Services (20 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) ranks #493 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #186 by equity capitalization ($8.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FDXF leads on earnings valuation at 25.0x trailing P/E, while AAL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. CPA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with AAL at 53/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAL
ACTIVE
American Airlines Group Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | 76.3x | — | 85.0% | -1.41% | $8.47B | Benchmark Subject |
| LTM LATAM Airlines Group S.A. American | D | 49/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | -3.59% | $12.62B | /ltm-vs-aal → |
| CPA Copa Holdings S.A. | D+ | 56/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | -1.78% | $5.40B | /cpa-vs-aal → |
| FDXF FedEx Freight Holding Company Inc. | D | 45/100 | 25.0x | — | 8.3% | +14.91% | $16.40B | /fdxf-vs-aal → |
| ALK Alaska Air Group Inc. | D- | 43/100 | 40.3x | — | 2.9% | -1.22% | $4.03B | /alk-vs-aal → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000006201In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) reported GAAP revenue of $54.63B (+0.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $54.21B , and +3.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $111.0M, operating cash flow of $3.10B, and free cash flow of $640.5M (-58.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, AAL closed FY2025 with $61.77B in total assets against $14.46B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.74, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $54.63B | $111.0M | $3.10B | $640.5M | $61.77B | $14.46B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $54.21B | $846.0M | $3.98B | $1.54B | $61.78B | $14.46B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $52.79B | $822.0M | $3.80B | $1.43B | $63.35B | $14.82B |
3. AAL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs AAL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ: AAL) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $12.60 (-1.41% 1D, market cap $8.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, AAL ranks #493 in composite RQD confidence.
How does AAL compare to LTM and CPA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Air Freight/Delivery Services), AAL carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 76.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 85.0%. By comparison, LTM (LATAM Airlines Group S.A. American) holds a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $12.62B) and CPA (Copa Holdings S.A.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $5.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, FDXF leads on earnings multiple (25.0x) while AAL leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for AAL?
Per AAL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000006201), American Airlines Group Inc. generated $54.63B in revenue (+0.8% YoY), $111.0M in net income, and $640.5M in free cash flow against $61.77B in total assets and $14.46B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is AAL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
AAL last traded at $12.60 (-1.41% on volume of 60,054,252 shares), positioning the stock -2.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.91) and -6.67% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.50). Across its 52-week range of $10.09 to $18.79, AAL sits at the 28.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.4% ($11.54 to $13.66).
AAL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is AAL stock moving today?
Why AAL Stock slipped -1.41% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 76x P/E (85% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
AAL — American Airlines Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, AAL scores 53 out of 100, grading D+ and carrying the verdict "Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores 15 of 20, anchored by an ROIC of 85% and an FCF yield of 7.56%. The strong ROIC figure is the main upside driver in the rating, though it sits alongside thin reported margins (operating margin 2.7%, net margin 0.2%), so an investor should check how the ROIC is being produced before treating it as durable. The Whale 13F Flow pillar scores 10 of 20 for institutional accumulation and options positioning, indicating only modest institutional conviction. The Insider Conviction pillar scores 12 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The Macro Regime Fit pillar scores 6 of 20, reflecting a beta of 1.08 and sector sensitivity, which means the stock is expected to move somewhat more than the market and is exposed to sector-wide conditions. The Forensic Balance Sheet pillar scores 10 of 20, supported by an Altman Z-Score of 0.74, a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and a Debt/Equity ratio of 0.85; the low Altman Z-Score is the most significant balance-sheet warning in the source data. Taken together, the rating frames the stock as one where a prospective investor faces a valuation tradeoff: the market data shows a trailing P/E of 76.3 and a forward P/E of 71, against an EV/EBITDA of 3.8, and the rating's verdict signals weak overall fundamentals. This is educational context, not a recommendation.
Snapshot
Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis
Per the recent news and catalysts feed, six items reference AAL. A "CATALYST" item from the American Airlines source reports that the company set new revenue records amid historic fuel cost pressure, flagged green. Other items, from Yahoo Finance, Trefis, The Motley Fool, and 24/7 Wall St., are flagged yellow and are framed around valuation, whether the stock looks undervalued given light sales, and a year-to-date decline of 23%. The feed's own summaries are generic and do not contain quantitative detail. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded for this issuer.
Open Questions
- What is driving the 85% ROIC given operating margin of 2.7% and net margin of 0.2%, and how does that reconcile with the declining operating income shown in the SEC financials?
- What are the period-end cash balances, and how does the $14455.1M debt load compare against them in FY 2025?
- What is the reported EPS for each fiscal year, given the EPS field is listed as N/A in the financials, and how does it reconcile with the $0.17 EPS (TTM)?
- What caused the 0.74 Altman Z-Score, and how does the balance sheet risk weigh against the 6/9 Piotroski F-Score?
- What is the source of the revenue record and fuel cost pressure cited in the catalyst feed, and what quantitative impact does it have on forward earnings?
AAL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
American Airlines report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
AAL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.60?
🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is AAL (D+ • RQD 53/100) a Buy at $12.78?
Welcome to the AAL (American Airlines Group Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 53/100 (Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Air Freight/Delivery Services. Bulls point to capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (76.3x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Pump the brakes on AAL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on AAL, but look at what you are paying: 76.3x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless American Airlines Group Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
AAL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on AAL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Air Freight/Delivery Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $12.78 (52-wk range $10.09 - $18.79), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.