ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

Z // Zillow Group Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001617640 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Business Services
$30.96 ▼ -0.03 (-0.10%)
MKT CAP: $6.97B • VOL: 3.59M
Z // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 50/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
50 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF -17.5% vs NI +120.5% • ROIC-WACC -9.7% • Z 5.5
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
7 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 9% • VS 200D -19.6% • RSI 50.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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Z // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -29.68%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $30.77H $30.99L $30.77C $30.96VOL 3.87M
RES: $34.01SUP: $24.79SMA50: $31.03SMA200: $38.56
$68.77$57.36$45.95$34.54$23.13RES $34.01SUP $24.79$30.962026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
Z // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 46/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Zillow Group Inc. (Z) exhibits 74.1% gross margins and -0.6% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Business Services), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 74.1% gross profitability converts into -1.3% operating margin and -0.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -0.6% // GM: 74.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +15.5% paired with 3.37% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +15.5% // FCF YLD: 3.37%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 5.50 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 5.50 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $30.96 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Business Services require continuous execution to defend 0.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 0.9% // D/E: 0.07x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.88).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 3.37%
GROSS MARGIN 74.1%
OPERATING MARGIN -1.3%
NET MARGIN 0.9%
ROIC % -0.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +15.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 0.07x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.88
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ZPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $28.33
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>