ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

WMG // Warner Music Group Corp.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001319161 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation
$30.62 ▲ +0.15 (+0.49%)
MKT CAP: $15.94B • VOL: 2.13M
WMG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 55/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
55 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF -15.5% vs NI -16.1% • ROIC-WACC +8.1% • Z 1.61
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
15 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 59% • VS 200D +6.7% • RSI 57.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
9 / 20
WARNING
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.13 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.15
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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WMG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.93%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $29.58H $30.62L $29.58C $30.62VOL 3.24M
RES: $32.60SUP: $28.03SMA50: $28.82SMA200: $28.57
$36.18$33.02$29.86$26.69$23.53RES $32.60SUP $28.03$30.622026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
WMG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Warner Music Group Corp. (WMG) exhibits 45.8% gross margins and 14.3% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), balanced against a 23.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.8% gross profitability converts into 10.3% operating margin and 14.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 14.3% // GM: 45.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.4% paired with 3.38% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.4% // FCF YLD: 3.38%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.61 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.61 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 43.7x trailing P/E (40.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 43.7x // EV/EBITDA: 23.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $30.62 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation require continuous execution to defend 5.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.4% // D/E: 5.36x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 40.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.95).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 43.7x
FORWARD P/E 40.6x
EV / EBITDA 23.4x
FCF YIELD 3.38%
GROSS MARGIN 45.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 10.3%
NET MARGIN 5.4%
ROIC % 14.3%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.70
DEBT / EQUITY 5.36x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.40%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 57.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.95
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // WMGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $28.02
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>