ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TPG // TPG Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001880661 ↗
Financials • Investment Managers
$46.68 ▼ -1.26 (-2.63%)
MKT CAP: $18.12B • VOL: 2.67M
TPG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 64/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
64 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +110.7% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -6% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 33% • VS 200D +5.4% • RSI 59.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.03 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.45
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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TPG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.66%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $44.59H $47.94L $44.59C $46.68VOL 5.75M
RES: $62.41SUP: $41.74SMA50: $46.81SMA200: $45.48
$56.69$51.75$46.81$41.87$36.93RES $62.41SUP $41.74$46.682026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
TPG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

TPG Inc. (TPG) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 2.5% return on invested capital within Financials (Investment Managers), balanced against a 66.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 9.3% operating margin and 2.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 2.5% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +16.1% paired with 5.10% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +16.1% // FCF YLD: 5.10%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 98.2x trailing P/E (82.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 98.2x // EV/EBITDA: 66.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $46.68 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Investment Managers require continuous execution to defend 7.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.6% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 82.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.93).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 98.2x
FORWARD P/E 82.5x
EV / EBITDA 66.7x
FCF YIELD 5.10%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 9.3%
NET MARGIN 7.6%
ROIC % 2.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +16.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.49
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 59.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.93
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TPGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $42.71
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>