ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

TOST // Toast Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001650164 ↗
Technology • EDP Services
$31.68 ▲ +0.18 (+0.57%)
MKT CAP: $18.21B • VOL: 8.66M
TOST // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 67/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
67 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +180.8% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +6.1% • Z 13.05
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=+0.01 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.38
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did TOST's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever TOST is Upgraded or Downgraded.

TOST // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.72%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-02O $31.94H $31.94L $31.50C $31.68VOL 12.88M
RES: $33.02SUP: $29.12SMA50: $31.85SMA200: $29.32
$38.25$33.91$29.58$25.25$20.92RES $33.02SUP $29.12$31.682026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
TOST // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 55/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Toast Inc. (TOST) exhibits 25.9% gross margins and 15.8% return on invested capital within Technology (EDP Services), balanced against a 32.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 25.9% gross profitability converts into 4.7% operating margin and 15.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 15.8% // GM: 25.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +24.1% paired with 2.11% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +24.1% // FCF YLD: 2.11%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 13.05 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 13.05 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 53.2x trailing P/E (44.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 53.2x // EV/EBITDA: 32.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $31.68 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in EDP Services require continuous execution to defend 5.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.6% // D/E: 0.20x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 44.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.14).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 53.2x
FORWARD P/E 44.7x
EV / EBITDA 32.8x
FCF YIELD 2.11%
GROSS MARGIN 25.9%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.7%
NET MARGIN 5.6%
ROIC % 15.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +24.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.59
DEBT / EQUITY 0.20x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 49.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.14
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // TOSTPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $28.99
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for TOST & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>