ROARABLE // PRO
[FREE TERMINAL]
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SW // Smurfit WestRock plc

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0002005951 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Containers/Packaging
$43.40 ▲ +0.31 (+0.72%)
MKT CAP: $22.60B • VOL: 7.20M
SW // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 56/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
56 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF +200% vs NI +119.1% • ROIC-WACC -3% • Z 1.49
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 52% • VS 200D -0.8% • RSI 53
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +8.9% • P/E 26.8x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did SW's Macro Regime Fit & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever SW is Upgraded or Downgraded.
SW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.30%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $42.53H $43.40L $42.53C $43.40VOL 5.25M
RES: $43.77SUP: $38.85SMA50: $43.60SMA200: $43.45
$53.14$48.37$43.60$38.82$34.05RES $43.77SUP $38.85$43.402026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
SW // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 66/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Smurfit WestRock plc (SW) exhibits 19.4% gross margins and 4.7% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Containers/Packaging), balanced against a 11.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 19.4% gross profitability converts into 5.5% operating margin and 4.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 4.7% // GM: 19.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +47.7% paired with 8.92% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +47.7% // FCF YLD: 8.92%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.49 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.49 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 31.9x trailing P/E (26.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 31.9x // EV/EBITDA: 11.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $43.40 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Containers/Packaging require continuous execution to defend 2.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 2.2% // D/E: 0.61x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 26.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.88).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 31.9x
FORWARD P/E 26.8x
EV / EBITDA 11.2x
FCF YIELD 8.92%
GROSS MARGIN 19.4%
OPERATING MARGIN 5.5%
NET MARGIN 2.2%
ROIC % 4.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +47.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.33
DEBT / EQUITY 0.61x
DIVIDEND YIELD 4.03%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 53.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.88
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SWPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $39.71
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for SW & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.
HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>
SW VS AMZN
MARGINS ROIC VALUATION
SW VS TSLA
MARGINS ROIC VALUATION
SW VS V
MARGINS ROIC VALUATION
SW VS MA
MARGINS ROIC VALUATION