ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

SIRI // SiriusXM Holdings Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000908937 ↗
Communication Services • Broadcasting
$29.01 ▲ +0.34 (+1.19%)
MKT CAP: $9.66B • VOL: 7.15M
SIRI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 68/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
16 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 69% • VS 200D +9% • RSI 63.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +12.9% • P/E 11.2x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
14 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=-0.10 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.25
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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SIRI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +8.37%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $27.32H $29.01L $27.32C $29.01VOL 6.76M
RES: $29.10SUP: $24.98SMA50: $27.53SMA200: $26.30
$33.38$30.39$27.39$24.39$21.39RES $29.10SUP $24.98$29.012026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
SIRI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 42/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

SiriusXM Holdings Inc. (SIRI) exhibits 52.4% gross margins and 6.4% return on invested capital within Communication Services (Broadcasting), balanced against a 8.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 52.4% gross profitability converts into 17.2% operating margin and 6.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.4% // GM: 52.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -1.6% paired with 12.88% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -1.6% // FCF YLD: 12.88%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.35 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.35 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 12.0x trailing P/E (11.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 12.0x // EV/EBITDA: 8.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $29.01 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Broadcasting require continuous execution to defend 9.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 9.4% // D/E: 0.57x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 11.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.89).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 12.0x
FORWARD P/E 11.2x
EV / EBITDA 8.0x
FCF YIELD 12.88%
GROSS MARGIN 52.4%
OPERATING MARGIN 17.2%
NET MARGIN 9.4%
ROIC % 6.4%
REV GROWTH YOY -1.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.39
DEBT / EQUITY 0.57x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 63.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.89
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // SIRIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $26.55
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>