ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

RDW // Redwire Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001819810 ↗
Industrials • Military/Government/Technical
$8.39 ▼ -0.77 (-8.41%)
MKT CAP: $2.29B • VOL: 11.93M
RDW // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 32/100 [E] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
32 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
6 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -120% vs NI -98.2% • ROIC-WACC -27% • Z 3.59
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
6 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 20% • VS 200D -17.2% • RSI 48.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
5 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.04 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.29
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did RDW's Insider & Capital Conviction & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever RDW is Upgraded or Downgraded.

RDW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -2.89%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $9.01H $9.16L $8.39C $8.39VOL 9.52M
RES: $10.03SUP: $7.39SMA50: $10.11SMA200: $11.06
$27.96$22.49$17.01$11.54$6.06RES $10.03SUP $7.39$8.392026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
RDW // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 32/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Redwire Corporation (RDW) exhibits 5.2% gross margins and -17.4% return on invested capital within Industrials (Military/Government/Technical), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 5.2% gross profitability converts into -60.0% operating margin and -17.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -17.4% // GM: 5.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +10.3% paired with -8.33% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +10.3% // FCF YLD: -8.33%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.59 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.59 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (31.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $8.39 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Military/Government/Technical require continuous execution to defend -60.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -60.0% // D/E: 0.08x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 31.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.99).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 31.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -8.33%
GROSS MARGIN 5.2%
OPERATING MARGIN -60.0%
NET MARGIN -60.0%
ROIC % -17.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +10.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.91
DEBT / EQUITY 0.08x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 48.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.99
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // RDWPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $7.68
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for RDW & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>