ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

RCL // Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000884887 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Marine Transportation
$307.18 ▼ -3.36 (-1.08%)
MKT CAP: $83.06B • VOL: 1.94M
RCL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 64/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
64 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
16 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 66% • VS 200D +8.3% • RSI 68.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +1.5% • P/E 18.1x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.12 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.37
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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RCL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.38%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $298.3H $310.5L $298.3C $307.2VOL 2.71M
RES: $312.7SUP: $192.9SMA50: $272.5SMA200: $286.8
$341.8$309.4$277.0$244.6$212.2RES $312.7SUP $192.9$307.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
RCL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 55/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) exhibits 49.4% gross margins and 17.3% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Marine Transportation), balanced against a 10.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 49.4% gross profitability converts into 27.4% operating margin and 17.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 17.3% // GM: 49.4%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.8% paired with 1.49% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.8% // FCF YLD: 1.49%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.32 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.32 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 19.5x trailing P/E (18.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 19.5x // EV/EBITDA: 10.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $307.18 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Marine Transportation require continuous execution to defend 23.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 23.8% // D/E: 1.31x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.95).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 19.5x
FORWARD P/E 18.1x
EV / EBITDA 10.2x
FCF YIELD 1.49%
GROSS MARGIN 49.4%
OPERATING MARGIN 27.4%
NET MARGIN 23.8%
ROIC % 17.3%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $15.96
DEBT / EQUITY 1.31x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.99%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 68.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.95
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // RCLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $281.08
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>