ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

OVV // Ovintiv Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001792580 ↗
Energy • Oil & Gas Production
$67.78 ▼ -4.84 (-6.66%)
MKT CAP: $20.53B • VOL: 4.45M
OVV // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 75/100 [B] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
74 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
18 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 97% • VS 200D +24.9% • RSI 68.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +7.4% • P/E 15.2x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
15 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.27 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.31
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
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ALERT

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OVV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.71%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $71.57H $72.62L $67.78C $67.78VOL 2.54M
RES: $74.59SUP: $59.68SMA50: $65.37SMA200: $58.13
$75.67$67.18$58.69$50.20$41.70RES $74.59SUP $59.68$67.782026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
OVV // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 41/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 5.7% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 8.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 13.1% operating margin and 5.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.7% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -3.1% paired with 7.44% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -3.1% // FCF YLD: 7.44%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.02 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.02 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 16.3x trailing P/E (15.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 16.3x // EV/EBITDA: 8.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $67.78 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend 14.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 14.3% // D/E: 0.39x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 15.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.91).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 16.3x
FORWARD P/E 15.2x
EV / EBITDA 8.3x
FCF YIELD 7.44%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 13.1%
NET MARGIN 14.3%
ROIC % 5.7%
REV GROWTH YOY -3.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.39
DEBT / EQUITY 0.39x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.52%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 68.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.91
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // OVVPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $62.02
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>