ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NCMI // National CineMedia Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001377630 ↗
Communication Services • Advertising
$1.61 ▲ +0.00 (0.00%)
MKT CAP: $151.5M • VOL: 1.10M
NCMI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 40/100 [D-] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
39 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
7 / 20
WARNING
FCF -94.9% vs NI +52.5% • ROIC-WACC -13.1% • Z 2.13
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
8 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.07 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.13
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 8 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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NCMI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -52.23%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $1.76H $1.76L $1.61C $1.61VOL 953.9K
RES: $4.85SUP: $1.57SMA50: $2.20SMA200: $3.15
$4.46$3.68$2.90$2.13$1.35RES $4.85SUP $1.57$1.612026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
NCMI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 37/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

National CineMedia Inc. (NCMI) exhibits 94.7% gross margins and -3.1% return on invested capital within Communication Services (Advertising), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 94.7% gross profitability converts into -5.7% operating margin and -3.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -3.1% // GM: 94.7%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +1.0% paired with 1.69% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +1.0% // FCF YLD: 1.69%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.13 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.13 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $1.61 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Advertising require continuous execution to defend -4.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -4.4% // D/E: 0.03x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 1.69%
GROSS MARGIN 94.7%
OPERATING MARGIN -5.7%
NET MARGIN -4.4%
ROIC % -3.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +1.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY 0.03x
DIVIDEND YIELD 6.89%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 28.7
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NCMIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $1.47
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for NCMI & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>