ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

NCLH // Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001513761 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Marine Transportation
$17.57 ▼ -0.65 (-3.57%)
MKT CAP: $8.37B • VOL: 28.32M
NCLH // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 39/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
39 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
6 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -120% vs NI -53.5% • ROIC-WACC +5.5% • Z 0.45
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 40% • VS 200D -2.3% • RSI 69.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF YIELD -14% • P/E 18.4x • F-SCORE 4/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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NCLH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.15%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $16.06H $18.22L $16.06C $17.57VOL 68.00M
RES: $18.34SUP: $11.28SMA50: $15.43SMA200: $18.65
$22.66$20.21$17.77$15.32$12.87RES $18.34SUP $11.28$17.572026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
NCLH // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 51/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 11.7% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Marine Transportation), balanced against a 3.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 66.6% operating margin and 11.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 11.7% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.8% paired with -13.98% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.8% // FCF YLD: -13.98%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.45 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.45 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 19.8x trailing P/E (18.4x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 19.8x // EV/EBITDA: 3.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $17.57 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Marine Transportation require continuous execution to defend 18.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 18.1% // D/E: 3.86x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.4x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.07).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 19.8x
FORWARD P/E 18.4x
EV / EBITDA 3.9x
FCF YIELD -13.98%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 66.6%
NET MARGIN 18.1%
ROIC % 11.7%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.92
DEBT / EQUITY 3.86x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 69.5
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.07
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // NCLHPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $16.08
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>