ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MKL // Markel Group Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001096343 ↗
Financials • Property-Casualty Insurers
$1,869.82 ▲ +2.63 (+0.14%)
MKT CAP: $22.83B • VOL: 65.9K
MKL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 65/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
65 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +9.2% vs NI -23.3% • ROIC-WACC -2.1% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
11 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 32% • VS 200D -1.4% • RSI 59.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +11.2% • P/E 10x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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MKL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.76%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $1,844.8H $1,869.8L $1,844.8C $1,869.8VOL 63.1K
RES: $1,923.4SUP: $1,641.6SMA50: $1,800.4SMA200: $1,894.2
$2,078.9$1,977.3$1,875.8$1,774.2$1,672.7RES $1,923.4SUP $1,641.6$1,869.82026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
MKL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 46/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Markel Group Inc. (MKL) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 7.1% return on invested capital within Financials (Property-Casualty Insurers), balanced against a 11.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 20.6% operating margin and 7.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 7.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.7% paired with 11.19% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.7% // FCF YLD: 11.19%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 10.8x trailing P/E (10.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 10.8x // EV/EBITDA: 11.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $1,869.82 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Property-Casualty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 13.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 13.6% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 10.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 10.8x
FORWARD P/E 10.0x
EV / EBITDA 11.8x
FCF YIELD 11.19%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 20.6%
NET MARGIN 13.6%
ROIC % 7.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $172.29
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 59.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.10
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MKLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $1,710.95
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>