ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MGRC // McGrath RentCorp

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000752714 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Diversified Commercial Services
$118.28 ▼ -1.32 (-1.10%)
MKT CAP: $2.91B • VOL: 169.6K
MGRC // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // C (RQD 65) -> C+ (RQD 68)
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 +3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF -36.8% vs NI -32.5% • ROIC-WACC +7% • Z 2.96
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 80% • VS 200D +4.9% • RSI 62.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +7.3% • P/E 17.3x • F-SCORE 5/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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MGRC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.11%📐 WEDGE COMPRESSION COIL
2026-11-02O $118.8H $119.6L $118.3C $118.3VOL 310.4K
RES: $122.9SUP: $112.3SMA50: $113.8SMA200: $114.0
$127.3$121.2$115.2$109.2$103.1RES $122.9SUP $112.3$118.32026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
MGRC // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 51/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) exhibits 48.2% gross margins and 15.6% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Diversified Commercial Services), balanced against a 10.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 48.2% gross profitability converts into 25.8% operating margin and 15.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 15.6% // GM: 48.2%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +3.7% paired with 7.25% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +3.7% // FCF YLD: 7.25%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.96 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.96 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 18.6x trailing P/E (17.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 18.6x // EV/EBITDA: 10.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $118.28 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Diversified Commercial Services require continuous execution to defend 16.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 16.6% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 17.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 18.6x
FORWARD P/E 17.3x
EV / EBITDA 10.4x
FCF YIELD 7.25%
GROSS MARGIN 48.2%
OPERATING MARGIN 25.8%
NET MARGIN 16.6%
ROIC % 15.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +3.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.42
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.64%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 62.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MGRCPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $108.23
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>