ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

MGM // MGM Resorts International

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000789570 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Hotels/Resorts
$29.96 ▲ +1.13 (+3.92%)
MKT CAP: $7.29B • VOL: 9.94M
MGM // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 45/100 [D] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
45 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +20.5% vs NI -72.4% • ROIC-WACC +5.4% • Z 0.71
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
6 / 20
CRITICAL
52W RANGE 9% • VS 200D -26% • RSI 40.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +20% • P/E 32.9x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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MGM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -21.65%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-02O $27.27H $29.96L $27.27C $29.96VOL 11.14M
RES: $29.50SUP: $26.48SMA50: $34.21SMA200: $38.98
$53.33$46.12$38.90$31.69$24.47RES $29.50SUP $26.48$29.962026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
MGM // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

MGM Resorts International (MGM) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 12.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Hotels/Resorts), balanced against a 6.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 5.7% operating margin and 12.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 12.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +1.7% paired with 20.02% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +1.7% // FCF YLD: 20.02%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.71 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.71 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 35.4x trailing P/E (32.9x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 35.4x // EV/EBITDA: 6.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $29.96 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Hotels/Resorts require continuous execution to defend 1.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.2% // D/E: 2.56x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 32.9x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.11).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 35.4x
FORWARD P/E 32.9x
EV / EBITDA 6.0x
FCF YIELD 20.02%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 5.7%
NET MARGIN 1.2%
ROIC % 12.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +1.7%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.81
DEBT / EQUITY 2.56x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 40.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.11
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // MGMPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $27.41
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>