ROARABLE // PRO
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KALU // Kaiser Aluminum Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000811596 ↗
Industrials • Metal Fabrications
$116.28 ▼ -3.55 (-2.96%)
MKT CAP: $1.90B • VOL: 459.3K
KALU // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 50/100 [D] (-1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
49 / 100 -1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -33.3% vs NI +140.4% • ROIC-WACC +0.6% • Z 2.7
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +5.7% • P/E 16.1x • F-SCORE 6/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
8 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.04 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.38
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did KALU's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever KALU is Upgraded or Downgraded.

KALU // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.37%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $119.8H $119.8L $116.3C $116.3VOL 459.3K
RES: $206.4SUP: $99.63SMA50: $147.1SMA200: $153.2
$206.6$178.8$150.9$123.1$95.28RES $206.4SUP $99.63$116.32026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
KALU // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 50/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU) exhibits 13.1% gross margins and 7.9% return on invested capital within Industrials (Metal Fabrications), balanced against a 16.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 13.1% gross profitability converts into 5.6% operating margin and 7.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 7.9% // GM: 13.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +11.5% paired with 5.69% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +11.5% // FCF YLD: 5.69%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.70 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.70 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 17.3x trailing P/E (16.1x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 17.3x // EV/EBITDA: 16.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $116.28 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Metal Fabrications require continuous execution to defend 3.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.4% // D/E: 1.28x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 16.1x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 17.3x
FORWARD P/E 16.1x
EV / EBITDA 16.0x
FCF YIELD 5.69%
GROSS MARGIN 13.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 5.6%
NET MARGIN 3.4%
ROIC % 7.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +11.5%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.91
DEBT / EQUITY 1.28x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.62%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 35.1
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // KALUPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $106.40
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for KALU & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>