ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

GENI // Genius Sports Limited

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001834489 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation
$6.36 ▼ -0.10 (-1.55%)
MKT CAP: $1.70B • VOL: 7.43M
GENI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 40/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
40 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF -7.2% vs NI -77% • ROIC-WACC -35.5% • Z 1.43
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
8 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 33% • VS 200D +2.6% • RSI 48.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.02 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.22
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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GENI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +41.33%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $6.46H $6.46L $6.36C $6.36VOL 7.43M
RES: $6.64SUP: $5.16SMA50: $6.60SMA200: $6.20
$9.76$8.20$6.64$5.08$3.53RES $6.64SUP $5.16$6.362026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
GENI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 35/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Genius Sports Limited (GENI) exhibits 23.0% gross margins and -26.9% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 23.0% gross profitability converts into -22.6% operating margin and -26.9% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -26.9% // GM: 23.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +31.0% paired with 3.73% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +31.0% // FCF YLD: 3.73%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.43 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.43 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $6.36 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Services-Misc. Amusement & Recreation require continuous execution to defend -16.7% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -16.7% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 3.73%
GROSS MARGIN 23.0%
OPERATING MARGIN -22.6%
NET MARGIN -16.7%
ROIC % -26.9%
REV GROWTH YOY +31.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 48.2
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // GENIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $5.82
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>