ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

FLO // Flowers Foods Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001128928 ↗
Consumer Staples • Packaged Foods
$6.27 ▲ +0.09 (+1.46%)
MKT CAP: $1.33B • VOL: 4.71M
FLO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▲ UPGRADE // D+ (RQD 57) -> C- (RQD 60)
ROARABLE C-
RQD CONFIDENCE
60 / 100 +3D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Cautious Neutral
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +13.7% vs NI -66.2% • ROIC-WACC -2.3% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
9 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 13% • VS 200D -21.2% • RSI 55.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +24.4% • P/E 14.5x • F-SCORE 5/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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FLO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.91%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $6.18H $6.27L $6.18C $6.27VOL 4.71M
RES: $6.24SUP: $4.58SMA50: $6.13SMA200: $7.96
$12.10$10.28$8.47$6.65$4.84RES $6.24SUP $4.58$6.272026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
FLO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 44/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Flowers Foods Inc. (FLO) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 5.2% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Packaged Foods), balanced against a 9.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 3.3% operating margin and 5.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.2% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +3.0% paired with 24.35% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +3.0% // FCF YLD: 24.35%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 15.6x trailing P/E (14.5x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 15.6x // EV/EBITDA: 9.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $6.27 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Packaged Foods require continuous execution to defend 1.6% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 1.6% // D/E: 1.04x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 14.5x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 15.6x
FORWARD P/E 14.5x
EV / EBITDA 9.4x
FCF YIELD 24.35%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 3.3%
NET MARGIN 1.6%
ROIC % 5.2%
REV GROWTH YOY +3.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $0.40
DEBT / EQUITY 1.04x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 55.5
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // FLOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $5.74
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>