ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

FDXF // FedEx Freight Holding Company Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0002082247 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Air Freight/Delivery Services
$126.04 ▲ +16.35 (+14.91%)
MKT CAP: $18.85B • VOL: 3.60M
FDXF // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 45/100 [D] (+6 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
51 / 100 +6D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF -120% vs NI -51.3% • ROIC-WACC +0% • Z 4.19
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 23% • VS 200D -8.1% • RSI 60.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
9 / 20
WARNING
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.15 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=+0.13
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

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FDXF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -16.53%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $109.7H $126.0L $109.7C $126.0VOL 3.60M
RES: $126.7SUP: $92.41SMA50: $117.8SMA200: $137.1
$206.8$178.8$150.8$122.8$94.79RES $126.7SUP $92.41$126.02026-05-272026-07-082026-08-172026-09-252026-11-03
FDXF // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 44/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

FedEx Freight Holding Company Inc. (FDXF) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 8.3% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Air Freight/Delivery Services), balanced against a 19.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 6.1% operating margin and 8.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.3% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -1.1% paired with -1.39% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -1.1% // FCF YLD: -1.39%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.19 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.19 // F-SCORE: 5/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 25.0x trailing P/E (23.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 25.0x // EV/EBITDA: 19.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $126.04 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Air Freight/Delivery Services require continuous execution to defend 7.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.4% // D/E: 0.39x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.92).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 25.0x
FORWARD P/E 23.3x
EV / EBITDA 19.5x
FCF YIELD -1.39%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 6.1%
NET MARGIN 7.4%
ROIC % 8.3%
REV GROWTH YOY -1.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $4.38
DEBT / EQUITY 0.39x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.29%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 60.4
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.92
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // FDXFPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $115.33
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>