ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

EXPE // Expedia Group Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001324424 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Transportation Services
$285.93 ▲ +3.20 (+1.13%)
MKT CAP: $32.37B • VOL: 1.78M
EXPE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 66/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
66 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
18 / 20
STRONG
FCF +33.5% vs NI +6.3% • ROIC-WACC +50.9% • Z 2.39
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
52W RANGE 62% • VS 200D +9.2% • RSI 50.5
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +9.6% • P/E 23.2x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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EXPE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.00%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $275.5H $285.9L $275.5C $285.9VOL 1.20M
RES: $394.8SUP: $253.9SMA50: $284.3SMA200: $259.0
$351.5$312.2$272.8$233.5$194.1RES $394.8SUP $253.9$285.92026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
EXPE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 82/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 57.1% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Transportation Services), balanced against a 12.4x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 12.7% operating margin and 57.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 57.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +7.6% paired with 9.61% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +7.6% // FCF YLD: 9.61%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.39 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.39 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.9x trailing P/E (23.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.9x // EV/EBITDA: 12.4x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $285.93 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Transportation Services require continuous execution to defend 8.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 8.8% // D/E: 3.48x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.88).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 24.9x
FORWARD P/E 23.2x
EV / EBITDA 12.4x
FCF YIELD 9.61%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 12.7%
NET MARGIN 8.8%
ROIC % 57.1%
REV GROWTH YOY +7.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $11.36
DEBT / EQUITY 3.48x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.62%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 50.5
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.88
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // EXPEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $261.64
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>