ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

EXPD // Expeditors International of Washington Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000746515 ↗
Industrials • Integrated Freight & Logistics
$198.85 ▲ +0.46 (+0.23%)
MKT CAP: $25.85B • VOL: 1.56M
EXPD // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 80/100 [B+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B+
RQD CONFIDENCE
80 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Very Good Cash & Smart-Money Inflow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
19 / 20
STRONG
FCF +106.4% vs NI +0% • ROIC-WACC +32.2% • Z 10.7
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
18 / 20
STRONG
52W RANGE 98% • VS 200D +18.8% • RSI 59.8
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
18 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 2 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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EXPD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +42.33%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $198.4H $198.9L $198.4C $198.9VOL 1.56M
RES: $203.9SUP: $179.0SMA50: $192.4SMA200: $167.4
$205.2$186.5$167.7$149.0$130.3RES $203.9SUP $179.0$198.92026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
EXPD // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
ACCUMULATE CONVICTION: 69/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Expeditors International of Washington Inc. (EXPD) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 40.3% return on invested capital within Industrials (Integrated Freight & Logistics), balanced against a 17.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 9.5% operating margin and 40.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 40.3% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.4% paired with 1.97% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.4% // FCF YLD: 1.97%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 10.70 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 10.70 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 31.8x trailing P/E (29.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 31.8x // EV/EBITDA: 17.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $198.85 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Integrated Freight & Logistics require continuous execution to defend 7.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.3% // D/E: 0.42x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 29.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.89).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 31.8x
FORWARD P/E 29.6x
EV / EBITDA 17.3x
FCF YIELD 1.97%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 9.5%
NET MARGIN 7.3%
ROIC % 40.3%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.23
DEBT / EQUITY 0.42x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.80%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 59.8
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.89
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // EXPDPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $181.95
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for EXPD & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>