ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

EXE // Expand Energy Corporation

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000895126 ↗
Energy • Oil & Gas Production
$89.46 ▼ -1.09 (-1.20%)
MKT CAP: $20.91B • VOL: 2.65M
EXE // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 65/100 [C] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C
RQD CONFIDENCE
65 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +200% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC -0.6% • Z 2.25
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +8.8% • P/E 9.7x • F-SCORE 9/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
13 / 20
SOLID
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.11 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.13
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did EXE's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever EXE is Upgraded or Downgraded.

EXE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.22%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $90.44H $90.55L $89.46C $89.46VOL 2.16M
RES: $99.67SUP: $82.44SMA50: $91.63SMA200: $96.62
$106.6$100.3$93.93$87.61$81.29RES $99.67SUP $82.44$89.462026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
EXE // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 88/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Expand Energy Corporation (EXE) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 8.5% return on invested capital within Energy (Oil & Gas Production), balanced against a 5.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 20.4% operating margin and 8.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 8.5% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +180.0% paired with 8.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +180.0% // FCF YLD: 8.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.25 and Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.25 // F-SCORE: 9/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 11.5x trailing P/E (9.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 11.5x // EV/EBITDA: 5.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $89.46 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Oil & Gas Production require continuous execution to defend 15.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 15.0% // D/E: 0.27x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 9.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.06).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 11.5x
FORWARD P/E 9.7x
EV / EBITDA 5.3x
FCF YIELD 8.80%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 20.4%
NET MARGIN 15.0%
ROIC % 8.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +180.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM $7.88
DEBT / EQUITY 0.27x
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.66%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 47.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.06
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // EXEPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $81.86
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for EXE & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>