ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

ELAN // Elanco Animal Health Incorporated

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001739104 ↗
Health Care • Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations
$24.10 ▲ +1.04 (+4.51%)
MKT CAP: $11.52B • VOL: 6.54M
ELAN // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 47/100 [D] (-2 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
45 / 100 -2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF -27.9% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -10.8% • Z 1.24
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
9 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 43% • VS 200D -3% • RSI 51.9
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF YIELD +2.5% • P/E 20x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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ELAN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +7.06%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $23.24H $24.10L $23.06C $24.10VOL 3.45M
RES: $29.72SUP: $21.81SMA50: $23.04SMA200: $23.78
$28.58$26.09$23.60$21.12$18.63RES $29.72SUP $21.81$24.102026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
ELAN // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 40/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) exhibits 55.0% gross margins and -2.5% return on invested capital within Health Care (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 55.0% gross profitability converts into -6.0% operating margin and -2.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -2.5% // GM: 55.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +6.2% paired with 2.45% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +6.2% // FCF YLD: 2.45%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.24 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.24 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (20.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $24.10 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations require continuous execution to defend -4.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -4.9% // D/E: 0.44x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 20.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.96).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 20.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 2.45%
GROSS MARGIN 55.0%
OPERATING MARGIN -6.0%
NET MARGIN -4.9%
ROIC % -2.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +6.2%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.46
DEBT / EQUITY 0.44x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 51.9
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.96
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // ELANPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $22.05
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>