ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CVNA // Carvana Co.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001690820 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations
$68.29 ▼ -0.02 (-0.03%)
MKT CAP: $75.36B • VOL: 16.98M
CVNA // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 58/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
58 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +7.5% vs NI +200% • ROIC-WACC +17.4% • Z 7.49
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 32% • VS 200D -0.9% • RSI 62.7
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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CVNA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -9.32%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $59.05H $68.31L $59.05C $68.29VOL 23.23M
RES: $78.11SUP: $53.31SMA50: $65.68SMA200: $68.96
$83.77$76.22$68.67$61.13$53.58RES $78.11SUP $53.31$68.292026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
CVNA // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
HIGH-CONVICTION LONG CONVICTION: 74/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Carvana Co. (CVNA) exhibits 20.6% gross margins and 24.6% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations), balanced against a 38.8x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 20.6% gross profitability converts into 9.3% operating margin and 24.6% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 24.6% // GM: 20.6%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +48.6% paired with 1.18% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +48.6% // FCF YLD: 1.18%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 7.49 and Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 7.49 // F-SCORE: 6/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 53.6x trailing P/E (45.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 53.6x // EV/EBITDA: 38.8x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $68.29 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Retail-Auto Dealers and Gas Stations require continuous execution to defend 6.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 6.9% // D/E: 1.40x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 45.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.04).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 53.6x
FORWARD P/E 45.0x
EV / EBITDA 38.8x
FCF YIELD 1.18%
GROSS MARGIN 20.6%
OPERATING MARGIN 9.3%
NET MARGIN 6.9%
ROIC % 24.6%
REV GROWTH YOY +48.6%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.28
DEBT / EQUITY 1.40x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 62.7
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.04
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CVNAPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $62.49
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>