ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

COP // ConocoPhillips

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001163165 ↗
Energy • Integrated oil Companies
$154.03 ▲ +4.00 (+2.67%)
MKT CAP: $180.24B • VOL: 7.03M
COP // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 82/100 [A-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE A-
RQD CONFIDENCE
82 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Superior Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
[LOCKED] OUTLIER
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] OUTLIER
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +9.7% • P/E 21x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
17 / 20
STRONG
TAILWIND • r(10Y)=+0.27 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.24
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
SIGNAL

Why did COP's Whale & Options Flow & Forensic Fundamentals sub-score just trigger an outlier signal? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever COP is Upgraded or Downgraded.

COP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +23.31%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $149.1H $154.0L $149.1C $154.0VOL 5.13M
RES: $155.0SUP: $131.8SMA50: $136.8SMA200: $121.8
$158.0$142.7$127.4$112.1$96.83RES $155.0SUP $131.8$154.02026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
COP // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

ConocoPhillips (COP) exhibits 56.9% gross margins and 9.4% return on invested capital within Energy (Integrated oil Companies), balanced against a 16.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 56.9% gross profitability converts into 18.8% operating margin and 9.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.4% // GM: 56.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.9% paired with 9.69% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.9% // FCF YLD: 9.69%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.40 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.40 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 22.6x trailing P/E (21.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 22.6x // EV/EBITDA: 16.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $154.03 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Integrated oil Companies require continuous execution to defend 15.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 15.4% // D/E: 0.37x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 21.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.16).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 22.6x
FORWARD P/E 21.0x
EV / EBITDA 16.9x
FCF YIELD 9.69%
GROSS MARGIN 56.9%
OPERATING MARGIN 18.8%
NET MARGIN 15.4%
ROIC % 9.4%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM $6.65
DEBT / EQUITY 0.37x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.22%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 64.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.16
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // COPPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $140.94
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for COP & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>