ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CG // The Carlyle Group Inc.

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001527166 ↗
Financials • Investment Managers
$40.18 ▼ -0.39 (-0.96%)
MKT CAP: $14.46B • VOL: 2.64M
CG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 33/100 [E] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE E
RQD CONFIDENCE
33 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
5 / 20
CRITICAL
FCF -120% vs NI -20.7% • ROIC-WACC -2.9% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
9 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 16% • VS 200D -13.6% • RSI 57.2
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 10 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

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CG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.59%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $39.06H $40.57L $39.06C $40.18VOL 3.05M
RES: $51.42SUP: $33.53SMA50: $41.12SMA200: $46.94
$58.78$52.45$46.11$39.78$33.44RES $51.42SUP $33.53$40.182026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
CG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 36/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 5.4% return on invested capital within Financials (Investment Managers), balanced against a 20.3x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 20.6% operating margin and 5.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 5.4% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -11.9% paired with -18.00% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -11.9% // FCF YLD: -18.00%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 3/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 17.9x trailing P/E (16.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 17.9x // EV/EBITDA: 20.3x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $40.18 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Investment Managers require continuous execution to defend 16.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 16.9% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 16.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.88).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 17.9x
FORWARD P/E 16.6x
EV / EBITDA 20.3x
FCF YIELD -18.00%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 20.6%
NET MARGIN 16.9%
ROIC % 5.4%
REV GROWTH YOY -11.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM $2.27
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 3.49%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 57.2
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.88
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $36.77
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for CG & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>