ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CARR // Carrier Global Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001783180 ↗
Industrials • Industrial Machinery/Components
$53.63 ▼ -1.91 (-3.44%)
MKT CAP: $43.88B • VOL: 9.82M
CARR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 54/100 [D+] (-2 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
52 / 100 -2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF +200% vs NI -73.5% • ROIC-WACC -0.5% • Z 2.47
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
7 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 13% • VS 200D -13.2% • RSI 40.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
14 / 20
SOLID
FCF YIELD +3.4% • P/E 28.7x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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CARR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.61%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $55.54H $55.54L $53.63C $53.63VOL 9.82M
RES: $57.58SUP: $47.20SMA50: $56.10SMA200: $61.80
$78.43$71.51$64.58$57.66$50.73RES $57.58SUP $47.20$53.632026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
CARR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 42/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 7.2% return on invested capital within Industrials (Industrial Machinery/Components), balanced against a 18.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 10.0% operating margin and 7.2% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 7.2% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -3.3% paired with 3.35% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -3.3% // FCF YLD: 3.35%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 2.47 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 2.47 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 30.9x trailing P/E (28.7x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 30.9x // EV/EBITDA: 18.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $53.63 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Industrial Machinery/Components require continuous execution to defend 6.8% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 6.8% // D/E: 0.80x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 28.7x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.00).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 30.9x
FORWARD P/E 28.7x
EV / EBITDA 18.5x
FCF YIELD 3.35%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 10.0%
NET MARGIN 6.8%
ROIC % 7.2%
REV GROWTH YOY -3.3%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.80
DEBT / EQUITY 0.80x
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.69%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 40.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.00
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CARRPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $49.07
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>