ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

CAG // ConAgra Brands Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000023217 ↗
Consumer Staples • Packaged Foods
$14.57 ▲ +0.48 (+3.41%)
MKT CAP: $6.96B • VOL: 10.72M
CAG // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 48/100 [D] (+1 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D
RQD CONFIDENCE
49 / 100 +1D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF -24.9% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -18.3% • Z 1.06
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
9 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 26% • VS 200D -4.5% • RSI 53.6
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
NEUTRAL • r(10Y)=-0.22 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=+0.09
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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CAG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.20%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $14.09H $14.57L $14.09C $14.57VOL 10.72M
RES: $18.30SUP: $12.69SMA50: $14.56SMA200: $15.25
$18.06$16.56$15.06$13.56$12.06RES $18.30SUP $12.69$14.572026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
CAG // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 30/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

ConAgra Brands Inc. (CAG) exhibits 23.9% gross margins and -10.0% return on invested capital within Consumer Staples (Packaged Foods), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 23.9% gross profitability converts into -14.4% operating margin and -10.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -10.0% // GM: 23.9%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -2.9% paired with 14.55% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -2.9% // FCF YLD: 14.55%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 1.06 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 1.06 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (23.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $14.57 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Packaged Foods require continuous execution to defend -17.0% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -17.0% // D/E: 0.59x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.07).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 23.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 14.55%
GROSS MARGIN 23.9%
OPERATING MARGIN -14.4%
NET MARGIN -17.0%
ROIC % -10.0%
REV GROWTH YOY -2.9%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-4.01
DEBT / EQUITY 0.59x
DIVIDEND YIELD 9.96%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 53.6
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.07
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // CAGPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $13.33
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>