ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

BURL // Burlington Stores Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001579298 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Department/Specialty Retail Stores
$237.09 ▼ -5.27 (-2.17%)
MKT CAP: $15.22B • VOL: 1.10M
BURL // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 58/100 [D+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D+
RQD CONFIDENCE
58 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Weak Fundamentals / Trim
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF +200% vs NI +21.1% • ROIC-WACC +15.5% • Z 3.69
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
7 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.04 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.32
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did BURL's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever BURL is Upgraded or Downgraded.

BURL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -23.34%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $234.0H $242.4L $234.0C $237.1VOL 1.06M
RES: $423.5SUP: $172.0SMA50: $258.2SMA200: $306.9
$388.9$345.0$301.1$257.1$213.2RES $423.5SUP $172.0$237.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
BURL // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 59/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Burlington Stores Inc. (BURL) exhibits 43.8% gross margins and 22.8% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Department/Specialty Retail Stores), balanced against a 9.7x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 43.8% gross profitability converts into 6.4% operating margin and 22.8% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 22.8% // GM: 43.8%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +8.8% paired with 1.13% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +8.8% // FCF YLD: 1.13%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.69 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.69 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 25.0x trailing P/E (23.3x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 25.0x // EV/EBITDA: 9.7x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $237.09 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Department/Specialty Retail Stores require continuous execution to defend 5.3% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 5.3% // D/E: 1.11x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 23.3x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.97).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 25.0x
FORWARD P/E 23.3x
EV / EBITDA 9.7x
FCF YIELD 1.13%
GROSS MARGIN 43.8%
OPERATING MARGIN 6.4%
NET MARGIN 5.3%
ROIC % 22.8%
REV GROWTH YOY +8.8%
DILUTED EPS TTM $9.71
DEBT / EQUITY 1.11x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 40.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.97
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // BURLPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $216.95
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>