ROARABLE // PRO
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AXTI // AXT Inc

DES <GO> NASDAQ RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001051627 ↗
Technology • Semiconductors
$55.06 ▼ -5.82 (-9.56%)
MKT CAP: $3.61B • VOL: 14.81M
AXTI // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 38/100 [D-] (-2 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
36 / 100 -2D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
9 / 20
WARNING
FCF -5% vs NI -82.9% • ROIC-WACC -16.5% • Z 24.42
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
7 / 20
WARNING
52W RANGE 35% • VS 200D -15.8% • RSI 43.1
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
6 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.06 (+19bp) • r(OAS)=-0.25
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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AXTI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -48.06%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $60.88H $60.88L $55.06C $55.06VOL 14.81M
RES: $82.70SUP: $50.83SMA50: $65.72SMA200: $65.40
$151.6$116.5$81.39$46.26$11.14RES $82.70SUP $50.83$55.062026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
AXTI // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 29/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

AXT Inc (AXTI) exhibits 12.7% gross margins and -5.4% return on invested capital within Technology (Semiconductors), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 12.7% gross profitability converts into -24.9% operating margin and -5.4% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -5.4% // GM: 12.7%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -11.1% paired with -0.47% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -11.1% // FCF YLD: -0.47%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 24.42 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 24.42 // F-SCORE: 3/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (33.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $55.06 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Semiconductors require continuous execution to defend -24.1% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -24.1% // D/E: 0.15x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 33.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.42).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E 33.0x
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD -0.47%
GROSS MARGIN 12.7%
OPERATING MARGIN -24.9%
NET MARGIN -24.1%
ROIC % -5.4%
REV GROWTH YOY -11.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $-0.32
DEBT / EQUITY 0.15x
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.00%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 43.1
5Y EQUITY BETA 1.42
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AXTIPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $50.38
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>