ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AXP // American Express Company

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000004962 ↗
Financials • Finance: Consumer Services
$319.11 ▼ -4.60 (-1.42%)
MKT CAP: $217.06B • VOL: 2.57M
AXP // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 68/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF +31.8% vs NI +7% • ROIC-WACC +0.9% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 34% • VS 200D -0.6% • RSI 58
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +7.4% • P/E 18.6x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
ALERT

Why did AXP's Macro Regime Fit & Forensic 10-K Risk sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever AXP is Upgraded or Downgraded.

AXP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.03%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $317.9H $323.7L $317.9C $319.1VOL 2.88M
RES: $325.2SUP: $287.1SMA50: $316.7SMA200: $325.7
$367.8$348.6$329.5$310.4$291.3RES $325.2SUP $287.1$319.12026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
AXP // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 48/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

American Express Company (AXP) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 9.5% return on invested capital within Financials (Finance: Consumer Services), balanced against a 19.2x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 32.0% operating margin and 9.5% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 9.5% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +6.4% paired with 7.37% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +6.4% // FCF YLD: 7.37%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 20.0x trailing P/E (18.6x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 20.0x // EV/EBITDA: 19.2x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $319.11 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Finance: Consumer Services require continuous execution to defend 26.2% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 26.2% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 18.6x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.95).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 20.0x
FORWARD P/E 18.6x
EV / EBITDA 19.2x
FCF YIELD 7.37%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 32.0%
NET MARGIN 26.2%
ROIC % 9.5%
REV GROWTH YOY +6.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $16.16
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 1.05%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 58.0
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.95
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AXPPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $292.00
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for AXP & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>