ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AON // Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A)

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000315293 ↗
Financials • Specialty Insurers
$321.67 ▲ +0.03 (+0.01%)
MKT CAP: $68.24B • VOL: 1.82M
AON // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 68/100 [C+] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE C+
RQD CONFIDENCE
68 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Hold — Upper Neutral / Watch for Breakout
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
13 / 20
SOLID
FCF +14.2% vs NI +39.2% • ROIC-WACC +6.5% • Z 3.2
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
14 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 48% • VS 200D -1.2% • RSI 69.4
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
16 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +4.7% • P/E 17.2x • F-SCORE 7/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

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AON // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +2.14%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-02O $315.7H $321.7L $315.7C $321.7VOL 2.00M
RES: $327.9SUP: $252.7SMA50: $300.7SMA200: $325.5
$390.5$356.8$323.2$289.5$255.9RES $327.9SUP $252.7$321.72026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
AON // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 54/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Aon plc (Ireland) (Class A) (AON) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and 15.0% return on invested capital within Financials (Specialty Insurers), balanced against a 17.9x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into 25.3% operating margin and 15.0% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 15.0% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +9.4% paired with 4.72% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +9.4% // FCF YLD: 4.72%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.80 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.80 // F-SCORE: 7/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 18.5x trailing P/E (17.2x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 18.5x // EV/EBITDA: 17.9x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $321.67 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Specialty Insurers require continuous execution to defend 21.5% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 21.5% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 17.2x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.94).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 18.5x
FORWARD P/E 17.2x
EV / EBITDA 17.9x
FCF YIELD 4.72%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN 25.3%
NET MARGIN 21.5%
ROIC % 15.0%
REV GROWTH YOY +9.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $17.42
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.92%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 69.4
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.94
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AONPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $294.34
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

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HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>