ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AMR // Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0001704715 ↗
Energy • Coal Mining
$159.19 ▼ -2.62 (-1.62%)
MKT CAP: $2.05B • VOL: 180.5K
AMR // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
▼ DOWNGRADE // D (RQD 50) -> D- (RQD 43)
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
43 / 100 -7D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
12 / 20
NEUTRAL
FCF -75% vs NI -120% • ROIC-WACC -12.7% • Z 4.18
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
8 / 20
WARNING
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=+0.03 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.21
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
10 / 20
NEUTRAL
20 BASE - 10 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did AMR's Whale & Options Flow & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever AMR is Upgraded or Downgraded.

AMR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.89%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $163.3H $163.3L $159.2C $159.2VOL 234.3K
RES: $256.0SUP: $155.0SMA50: $186.6SMA200: $184.6
$250.1$218.6$187.0$155.4$123.8RES $256.0SUP $155.0$159.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-172026-11-02
AMR // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 28/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (AMR) exhibits 45.0% gross margins and -4.1% return on invested capital within Energy (Coal Mining), balanced against a 24.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 45.0% gross profitability converts into -2.9% operating margin and -4.1% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: -4.1% // GM: 45.0%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -28.0% paired with 7.06% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -28.0% // FCF YLD: 7.06%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 4.18 and Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 4.18 // F-SCORE: 4/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 24.0x trailing P/E (— Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 24.0x // EV/EBITDA: —
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $159.19 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Coal Mining require continuous execution to defend -2.9% net margins.

NET MARGIN: -2.9% // D/E: 0.45x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs — forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 1.10).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E —
FORWARD P/E —
EV / EBITDA —
FCF YIELD 7.06%
GROSS MARGIN —
OPERATING MARGIN -2.9%
NET MARGIN -2.9%
ROIC % -4.1%
REV GROWTH YOY -28.0%
DILUTED EPS TTM —
DEBT / EQUITY —
DIVIDEND YIELD 0.02%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 42.9
5Y EQUITY BETA —
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AMRPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $145.66
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for AMR & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>