ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AES // The AES Corporation

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000874761 ↗
Utilities • Electric Utilities: Central
$14.83 ▼ -0.22 (-1.46%)
MKT CAP: $10.74B • VOL: 9.14M
AES // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 39/100 [D-] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE D-
RQD CONFIDENCE
39 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
8 / 20
WARNING
FCF +65% vs NI -45.8% • ROIC-WACC +0.5% • Z 0.54
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
13 / 20
SOLID
52W RANGE 41% • VS 200D +1.8% • RSI 58.3
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
6 / 20
CRITICAL
HEADWIND • r(10Y)=-0.11 (+23bp) • r(OAS)=-0.20
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
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ALERT

Why did AES's Forensic 10-K Risk & Insider & Capital Conviction sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever AES is Upgraded or Downgraded.

AES // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.85%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $14.98H $15.05L $14.83C $14.83VOL 8.97M
RES: $15.07SUP: $14.84SMA50: $14.88SMA200: $14.78
$15.11$14.85$14.58$14.31$14.05RES $15.07SUP $14.84$14.832026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
AES // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
UNDERWEIGHT CONVICTION: 43/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

The AES Corporation (AES) exhibits 18.1% gross margins and 6.7% return on invested capital within Utilities (Electric Utilities: Central), balanced against a 3.5x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 18.1% gross profitability converts into 9.1% operating margin and 6.7% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 6.7% // GM: 18.1%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of -0.4% paired with -15.12% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: -0.4% // FCF YLD: -15.12%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 0.54 and Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 0.54 // F-SCORE: 3/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 11.8x trailing P/E (11.0x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 11.8x // EV/EBITDA: 3.5x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $14.83 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Electric Utilities: Central require continuous execution to defend 7.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 7.4% // D/E: 2.57x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 11.0x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.75).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 11.8x
FORWARD P/E 11.0x
EV / EBITDA 3.5x
FCF YIELD -15.12%
GROSS MARGIN 18.1%
OPERATING MARGIN 9.1%
NET MARGIN 7.4%
ROIC % 6.7%
REV GROWTH YOY -0.4%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.28
DEBT / EQUITY 2.57x
DIVIDEND YIELD 4.67%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 58.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.75
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AESPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $13.57
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for AES & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>