ROARABLE // PRO
GLOBAL DESKS // NYC --:--:-- NYSE
US TAPE
ROAR ▸

AEO // American Eagle Outfitters Inc.

DES <GO> NYSE RQD COCKPIT → CIK 0000919012 ↗
Consumer Discretionary • Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores
$19.61 ▼ -0.51 (-2.53%)
MKT CAP: $3.37B • VOL: 4.64M
AEO // ROARABLE RATING & 5-PILLAR RQD CONFIDENCE 02:00 EST DETERMINISTIC ENGINE
PRIOR: RQD 72/100 [B] (+0 PT) • UNCHANGED
ROARABLE B
RQD CONFIDENCE
72 / 100 +0D
5 X 20-PT QUANT PILLARS
E 0 D 35 C 59 B 70 A 86+
Roarable Buy — Good Risk/Reward
01 MASSIVE / SEC XBRL
Forensic Fundamentals
15 / 20
SOLID
FCF -23.2% vs NI -43.1% • ROIC-WACC +2.7% • Z 3.65
02 INSTITUTIONAL TAPE & TREND
Whale & Options Flow
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
03 SEC XBRL CAPITAL ALLOCATION
Insider & Capital Conviction
17 / 20
STRONG
FCF YIELD +5.8% • P/E 16.8x • F-SCORE 8/9
04 FRED 90D r-MATRIX
Macro Regime Fit
[LOCKED] FLAGGED
UNLOCK BELOW TO REVEAL
05 10-K REDLINE AUDIT
Forensic 10-K Risk
16 / 20
STRONG
20 BASE - 4 DEDUCT • 0 CRIT / 0 MED • STABLE
ALERT

Why did AEO's Macro Regime Fit & Whale & Options Flow sub-score just flash a warning? Enter your email to unlock the full 5-Pillar Rating Breakdown + get instant alerts whenever AEO is Upgraded or Downgraded.

AEO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +19.57%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $19.46H $20.12L $19.46C $19.61VOL 4.39M
RES: $20.53SUP: $13.86SMA50: $17.31SMA200: $18.32
$20.86$19.03$17.20$15.36$13.53RES $20.53SUP $13.86$19.612026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
AEO // INSTITUTIONAL BULL VS. BEAR FORENSIC DEBATE
NEUTRAL / PAIR TRADE CONVICTION: 49/100
BEAR 0
100 BULL

American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) exhibits 36.5% gross margins and 12.3% return on invested capital within Consumer Discretionary (Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores), balanced against a 7.0x enterprise multiple and 4.8% implied options volatility.

▲ INSTITUTIONAL BULL THESIS (LONG)
01. Operating Leverage & Capital Efficiency Moat

Sustained 36.5% gross profitability converts into 4.1% operating margin and 12.3% ROIC, outpacing sector cost of capital.

ROIC: 12.3% // GM: 36.5%
02. Top-Line Expansion & Cash Conversion

YoY revenue trajectory of +4.1% paired with 5.80% free cash flow yield supports self-funded R&D and capital return.

REV YOY: +4.1% // FCF YLD: 5.80%
03. Balance Sheet Solvency & Forensic Quality

Altman Z-Score of 3.65 and Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 indicate low near-term refinancing stress.

ALTMAN Z: 3.65 // F-SCORE: 8/9
▼ INSTITUTIONAL BEAR THESIS (SHORT / RISK)
01. Multiple Compression & Duration Sensitivity

Trading at 18.1x trailing P/E (16.8x Fwd P/E) leaves valuation vulnerable if real 10Y TIPS yields spike.

P/E: 18.1x // EV/EBITDA: 7.0x
02. Options Skew & Event Volatility Risk

Options market prices a ±5.2% implied move with a 0.85 put/call ratio around $19.61 max pain.

IMPL MOVE: ±5.2% // P/C: 0.85
03. Competitive Margin & CapEx Cycle Pressure

Elevated industry capital intensity and customer concentration in Clothing/Shoe/Accessory Stores require continuous execution to defend 3.4% net margins.

NET MARGIN: 3.4% // D/E: 0.00x
KEY CATALYST // Upcoming 10-Q/10-K XBRL margin progression, guidance revision vs 16.8x forward consensus, and institutional 13F positioning.
MACRO REGIME // Monitor US 10Y Real Yields (DFII10) and High-Yield Credit Spreads (OAS) for beta-adjusted multiple impact (Beta 0.93).
FORM 4 & 13F FLOW OPEN OWN <GO>
FILER SIDE $ VALUE
INSPECT FULL OWNERSHIP LEDGER IN OWN <GO>
UNUSUAL OPTIONS TAPE OPEN OPT <GO>
STRIKE / EXP TYPE PREMIUM
INSPECT GEX & CHAIN IN OPT <GO>
KEY VALUATION & PROFITABILITY RATIOS XBRL FA <GO>
TRAILING P/E 18.1x
FORWARD P/E 16.8x
EV / EBITDA 7.0x
FCF YIELD 5.80%
GROSS MARGIN 36.5%
OPERATING MARGIN 4.1%
NET MARGIN 3.4%
ROIC % 12.3%
REV GROWTH YOY +4.1%
DILUTED EPS TTM $1.11
DEBT / EQUITY 0.00x
DIVIDEND YIELD 2.53%
RSI-14 MOMENTUM 69.3
5Y EQUITY BETA 0.93
FRED MACRO SENSITIVITY (PEARSON r) ECST <GO>
MACRO CORRELATION CALIBRATION ACTIVE BELOW.
FRED MACRO REGIME STRESS-TEST SIMULATOR // AEOPEARSON R VARIANCE ENGINE
01 // SELECT FEDERAL RESERVE & CREDIT SHOCK SCENARIO
02 // POSITION NOTIONAL EXPOSURE
HEADLINE STRESS SCORE
75/100SEVERE DRAWDOWN PRESSURE
PRIMARY FACTOR EXPOSURE
DFII10 // -0.61 r
Latest: 2.08%
EST. DIRECTIONAL MOVE
-8.50%
Implied Px: $17.94
EST. DOLLAR VARIANCE
-$4,248
On $50,000 Notional
[LOCKED // MULTI-FACTOR DRAWDOWN HEDGE & MACRO TRIGGER ALERT]

Unblur the exact $50,000 delta-adjusted ETF/options hedge ratio for AEO & activate live FRED threshold breach alerts.

HEAD-TO-HEAD PEER COMPARISONS COMP <GO>